Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Christmas Game December 25, 2025

📅 Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: FedEx Field - Landover, MD

Javonte Williams has been the one consistent positive for Dallas this season. Since arriving from Denver, he’s taken on a heavy workload — 239 carries for 1,147 yards and 10 TDs — and he’s averaging 76.5 rushing yards per game, clearing the 75.5 mark in 9 of 15 outings. That kind of volume and production is the backbone of this play.

Matchup matters. Washington’s defense has been porous against the run all year: they sit near the bottom in points allowed and total yards, and specifically rank 29th in rushing yards allowed and 28th in net yards per carry. Opponents have topped 100 rushing yards against them in the majority of games. Those numbers scream opportunity for a workhorse back.

Dallas will lean on Williams early. He’s averaging a career‑high 15.9 rush attempts per game and has seen double‑digit carries in nearly every contest. If the Cowboys can establish the run and control the clock, Williams will see the volume he needs to clear this line — and the game script here points in that direction.

This isn’t just about attempts; it’s about chunk plays. Williams has shown the ability to break tackles and pick up explosive gains when the line opens lanes. Against a Commanders front that struggles to finish tackles and limit yards after contact, those bursts become more likely and more frequent.

There’s a clear game‑flow angle too. If Dallas gets an early lead, they’ll keep feeding the run to chew clock and protect the score. That reduces variance and increases Williams’ chances to pile up yards in the second half when Washington is forced to pass more and the defense gets tired.

Risks exist — a surprise blowout, early injury, or an unexpected defensive adjustment could limit his touches. But those are one-off scenarios; the baseline here is heavy usage against a weak run defense, which is exactly the setup you want for a rushing prop.

📌 Official Picks
Javonte Williams (Dallas Cowboys) Over 74.5 Rushing Yards -110
Volume, matchup, and game script all tilt in his favor — expect a steady, workmanlike day that pushes him past this number.

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