Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Thanksgiving November 27, 2025

📅 Date: Thursday, November 27, 2025
🕖 Time: 4:30 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

The Cowboys made a bold move before the season, flipping draft capital to Pittsburgh for George Pickens — and it’s already paying off. Eleven games in, he’s sitting at 1,054 yards on 67 catches, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba for the league lead. He’s also punched in eight touchdowns, already a career-best, and ranks third in the NFL in scores.

Pickens has been on a heater lately. He’s cleared 90 yards in four different games, including back-to-back monster outings: 144 yards and a TD against the Raiders, followed by 146 and another score against Philly. He’s not just piling up receptions; he’s consistently flipping the field with chunk plays.

Kansas City’s secondary is no joke, but Pickens has proven he can torch even the stingiest defenses. Week 4 against Green Bay — a unit that’s top-five in limiting passing yards — he went for 134 and two touchdowns. That’s the kind of matchup-proof production that makes him dangerous every week.

Even with CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson commanding targets, Pickens keeps carving out his share. The Cowboys are leaning into his expanded route tree, and Dak has shown trust in him on high-leverage downs. That combination makes him a tough cover, especially when he’s winning vertically.

Now, the Chiefs have been stingy against wideouts lately, giving up the fourth-fewest fantasy points and barely any touchdowns over the past two months. That’s a real challenge, but Pickens doesn’t need another 140-yard explosion to cash this number. His volume and big-play ability put him in position to clear mid-70s even in a tougher matchup.

He’s locked in, the usage is steady, and the ceiling is too high to fade.

📌 Official Picks
George Pickens (Dallas Cowboys) Over 74.5 Receiving Yards -110

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