Cagliari and Lecce may both sit on three points, but their paths to get there couldn’t look more different — and that gap in form is exactly why I’m backing the home side. Cagliari went toe‑to‑toe with Inter and kept the champions honest in a tight 1-0 loss, while Lecce were torn apart by Roma in a match that was over inside 25 minutes. Even Lecce’s opening win at Venezia came with warning signs: two disallowed goals for the hosts and long stretches where Lecce looked second‑best. Add in their Coppa Italia exit to Palermo and a rough away record — five losses in their last eight on the road — and this trip to Sardinia becomes a tough ask. Cagliari have quietly built a strong home profile, winning three of their last five at the Unipol Domus and beating Atalanta along the way. They’re the more stable side right now, they match up well physically, and Lecce’s defensive issues should show again. I’m taking the hosts to get it done.