Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Prediction & Betting Pick | Australian Open Women’s Grand Final January 31, 2026

📅 Date: Saturday, January 31, 2026
🕖 Time: 3:30 AM EST
🏟️ Venue: Rod Laver Arena - Melbourne, Australia

Sabalenka arrives at Rod Laver Arena with momentum you can measure. She’s 11–0 this season, hasn’t dropped a set in Melbourne, and has been the tournament’s most aggressive, consistent force from the baseline. That form matters in big moments.

Rybakina is no walkover — her serve has been a wrecking ball all fortnight. She’s gone through the draw without surrendering a set either, and her first‑serve points won sit north of 75% in this event. When she’s on, she can end points in two strokes.

This is a power matchup more than a finesse contest. Both players hit flat, heavy balls and both look to finish points early. The roof likely coming down only amplifies that dynamic; indoor conditions favor big servers and low bounce hitters.

Where Sabalenka gains the edge is return and experience in slam finals. Her return numbers this year are stronger, and she’s been to more big‑stage matches — seven straight hard‑court major finals is not a coincidence. She knows how to raise intensity when the pressure spikes.

Rybakina’s path here has been tougher on paper — wins over Swiatek and Pegula — which should have sharpened her. But she’s also had to grind, and there were moments in the semis where her serve wobbled late. Those small cracks are exactly what Sabalenka exploits.

Tactically expect Sabalenka to take the ball early, step in on second serves, and try to keep rallies on her terms. Rybakina will counter by hunting aces and free points; if she gets them, the match stays tight. If not, Sabalenka will control the tempo.

Head‑to‑head is close — Sabalenka leads 8–6 — and their recent meetings have traded blows. That history suggests this won’t be a straight‑sets blowout, but rather a high‑quality, swingy contest where momentum flips and sets split.

Because both players serve big and trade heavy groundstrokes, I expect multiple service holds, a couple of tight sets, and at least one momentum swing that forces a decider. That profile pushes the total over 22.5 games and keeps the price attractive.

I’m siding with Sabalenka to take the title and the match to go over 22.5 games. It’s a play on Sabalenka’s return edge, finals experience, and the matchup dynamics that favor extended, high‑intensity sets.

📌 Official Picks
Aryna Sabalenka Win & Over 22.5 Games +200

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