Texas State vs South Alabama Prediction & Betting Pick | College Basketball February 19, 2026
📅 Date: Thursday, February 19, 2026
🕖 Time: 8:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Mitchell Center - Mobile, AL
South Alabama’s profile fits this spot. They’re efficient offensively (about 74.5 PPG) and stingy on defense, holding opponents to roughly 69.4 PPG while forcing turnovers at a solid clip. At home in the Mitchell Center they control pace and make life difficult for teams that rely on clean looks and offensive rhythm.
Texas State is a dangerous underdog when they get hot. The Bobcats score in bunches — 17–11 overall and averaging 74.4 PPG — and their recent 95‑84 win over UL Monroe showed they can light it up from deep and move the ball (22 assists in that game). DJ Hall’s 27 on 11‑of‑17 was the kind of individual performance that swings lines, and he’s the matchup problem the Jaguars need to account for.
Where the edge lies is consistency and defensive execution. South Alabama defends the paint well and ranks among the better teams nationally at limiting opponent field-goal percentage. They also rebound at a respectable clip and convert transition chances into easy points, which should blunt Texas State’s rhythm if the Jaguars execute their game plan.
Turnover margins matter here. South Alabama averages fewer turnovers per game (about 8.7) than Texas State (roughly 12.8), and that differential translates into extra possessions and fewer easy transition buckets for the Bobcats. In a game projected to be competitive, possession control is a decisive factor.
Rebounding is another tilt toward the Jaguars. Texas State grabs about 36.1 RPG, but South Alabama’s ability to secure defensive boards and limit second‑chance points (opponents shoot under 39% overall) will be crucial. If the Jaguars clean the glass, they’ll force Texas State into contested putbacks and longer possessions.
Matchup-wise, watch Chaze Harris and DJ Hall. Harris can explode for big scoring nights and create for others; Hall can carry Texas State when his shot is falling. Whoever gets their backcourt going early will dictate tempo. I expect South Alabama’s defense to make the Bobcats work for every bucket and to contest the perimeter without overcommitting.
The totals context is interesting: both teams’ games have averaged well above the posted 138 total, suggesting this market could be underestimating scoring potential. Still, I’m focused on the spread — South Alabama’s home efficiency and turnover discipline give them the edge to cover a mid-single-digit line.
Situationally, South Alabama’s recent loss to Marshall (84‑80) showed they can still score under pressure, but it also highlighted defensive lapses they’ll want to fix. Texas State’s win over UL Monroe was impressive offensively, yet their defense allowed 55.4% shooting — a vulnerability the Jaguars can exploit if they move the ball and attack the rim.
📌 Official Pick
South Alabama -4.5 -116
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