Georgia vs Kentucky Prediction & Betting Pick | College Basketball February 17, 2026
📅 Date: Tuesday, February 17, 2026
🕖 Time: 9:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Rupp Arena - Lexington, KY
Georgia brings offense to Rupp — they score in bunches. The Bulldogs are 17‑8 overall and, despite a 5‑7 SEC ledger, they’ve shown they can light it up: averaging 90.3 PPG on 47% shooting and grabbing about 39.7 RPG. That scoring profile makes them dangerous in spurts; when their shots fall, they can outpace almost anyone.
That said, Georgia’s defensive ledger is messy. They allow 78.4 PPG and, while their activity numbers (around 6.6 blocks and 8.6 steals) create extra possessions, those flashes haven’t consistently translated into stops. Against efficient offenses, that inconsistency becomes a liability.
Kentucky’s resume reads differently. The Wildcats sit 17‑8, 8‑4 in the SEC and have been steadier at home. They average 81.6 PPG while holding opponents to 72.2, and their 47% shooting and 16.2 APG show a team that moves the ball and finds high‑quality looks rather than relying on volume scoring.
Defensively, Kentucky contests shots and pressures passing lanes — roughly 4.8 blocks and 7.3 steals per game. That combination of interior deterrence and perimeter disruption is exactly what you want when facing a team that thrives on quick scoring bursts.
Matchup-wise, Rupp Arena matters. Kentucky defends the paint and controls tempo at home; they’ll try to slow Georgia’s runouts and force half‑court possessions. If the Wildcats can limit transition and make Georgia work for every bucket, the Bulldogs’ efficiency edge shrinks fast.
Georgia’s path to an upset is straightforward: push the pace, get hot from deep, and turn Kentucky turnovers into easy points. But Kentucky’s ball movement and defensive discipline make those easy runs harder to sustain over 40 minutes, especially in front of a hostile crowd.
Depth and balance tilt toward the Wildcats. Kentucky gets contributions across the rotation and can match Georgia’s scoring when needed without sacrificing defensive intensity. That two‑way balance is the difference between a close game and a late separation.
I expect Kentucky to control the glass, dictate pace early, and make Georgia uncomfortable in late possessions. The Wildcats should be able to build a lead by halftime and force the Bulldogs into rushed shots down the stretch.
This line sits where I want it. Georgia can score, but Kentucky’s defense, home court, and offensive balance give them the edge to win by more than a single‑digit margin.
📌 Official Pick
Kentucky -7 -116 — confident they’ll pull away in Lexington.
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