Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott) at New York Yankees (Will Warren) Prediction & Betting Pick | MLB Regular Season June 20, 2026

📅 Date: Saturday, June 20, 2026
🕖 Time: 1:35 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Yankee Stadium - Bronx, NY

The Yankees walked into Saturday with all the momentum in the world after Cam Schlittler dropped 13 strikeouts and lowered his ERA to 1.71, and that kind of performance tends to bleed right into the next day. Will Warren gets the ball this afternoon, and he’s been exactly what New York needs behind their ace — steady, efficient, and borderline dominant at home. A 7–1 record with a 3.47 ERA in the Bronx is no accident. He pitches with confidence in this park, and the Yankees play clean baseball behind him.

This matchup also lines up perfectly for Warren’s strengths. Cincinnati has been ice‑cold against quality right‑handed pitching, and the numbers are brutal. In 10 games against RHPs with a WHIP under 1.10, the Reds have scored more than three runs just once, averaging 2.4 runs per game in those spots. That’s not a small sample — that’s a trend. And Warren fits that profile almost exactly.

The Reds’ offense has been lifeless for weeks. They’re hitting .228, they’ve struck out 679 times, and their approach has been all over the place. Even when they make contact, it’s rarely loud. Their .395 slugging is inflated by a few hot stretches earlier in the season, not anything they’re doing right now. Against a pitcher who attacks the zone and forces hitters to beat him, this lineup is in trouble.

Andrew Abbott has been better lately, and credit where it’s due — the second half of his season has looked much cleaner. But the control issues haven’t disappeared. Nine walks in his last three starts is a flashing warning sign heading into Yankee Stadium. This lineup punishes free passes, and Abbott’s splits don’t help him either. He’s been worse against left‑handed hitters, and the Yankees can stack lefties all day.

The interesting wrinkle is that Abbott’s strikeout numbers against lefties are actually strong — 28.1% K rate — but that doesn’t erase the matchup problem. New York has been one of the toughest lineups in baseball for opposing LHPs over the last month. They grind at‑bats, they force pitch count pressure, and they don’t let lefties settle in. Even if Abbott flashes good stuff early, the Yankees’ depth eventually forces mistakes.

Warren’s path to a win is straightforward: limit traffic, avoid the long ball, and let the Yankees’ offense do the heavy lifting. And that’s exactly what he’s done all season at home. His WHIP is manageable, his strikeout‑to‑walk ratio is strong, and he rarely gives up crooked innings. Against a Reds team that can’t string together hits, that’s a recipe for six solid innings.

Cincinnati’s pitching staff doesn’t offer much resistance either. A 4.65 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and a FIP over 5.00 tells you everything you need to know. They give up hits, they give up walks, and they give up home runs. That’s a nightmare combination against a Yankees lineup that’s top‑five in runs per game and top‑five in slugging.

The bullpen edge also leans heavily toward New York. The Reds’ relievers have blown 15 of 32 save chances, and their inherited runner scoring rate is high. If Abbott exits early — and the matchup suggests he might — the Yankees will get multiple cracks at a bullpen that hasn’t been able to hold leads or stop rallies.

New York’s defense and pitching efficiency give Warren even more support. The Yankees rank 4th in defensive efficiency, and their staff ERA sits at 3.35, one of the best in baseball. When Warren pitches with a lead, he becomes even more aggressive, and that’s when he’s at his best.

Everything lines up for Warren to walk away with the win: the matchup, the form, the ballpark, and the opponent’s offensive collapse. At +140, the value is too good to pass up.

📌 Official Pick
Will Warren (Yankees) to Record the Win +140

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