Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alex de Minaur Prediction & Betting Pick | US Open Quarter-Final

📅 Date: Wednesday, September 2, 2025
🕖 Time: 11:30 AM EST
🏟️ Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium

Felix Auger-Aliassime is finally showing glimpses of the talent that once had him tipped as a future Grand Slam champion. After a rocky season, the Canadian has caught fire in New York, taking out two seeded players in succession to book his place in the quarterfinals. Alex de Minaur, meanwhile, has cruised through his section of the draw but has yet to face a true heavyweight test. This clash promises a fascinating battle of power versus consistency.

Felix Auger-Aliassime: Rediscovering His Best Form

Auger-Aliassime arrived at the US Open with modest expectations after managing just two wins across the first three majors of 2025. Instead, he’s produced his best Slam showing of the year, highlighted by a statement win over Alexander Zverev in the third round and a commanding straight-sets victory against Andrey Rublev in the last 16.

Against Rublev, the Canadian was locked in from the baseline, winning 7-5, 6-3, 6-4 without dropping serve after the opening stages. He has now scored back-to-back victories over top-20 opponents, restoring both confidence and ranking momentum. This marks his fourth career Grand Slam quarterfinal, though he has advanced beyond this stage only once — courtesy of Carlos Alcaraz’s retirement at the 2021 US Open.

What stands out in New York is his serving efficiency and ability to dictate points with his forehand. If he keeps that rhythm, he has the weapons to push into his first semifinal in three years.

Alex de Minaur: Steady but Untested

De Minaur’s road to the quarterfinal has been smooth, but perhaps too smooth. Wins over Christopher O’Connell, Shintaro Mochizuki, Daniel Altmaier, and qualifier Leandro Riedi got him here, but none of those opponents rank inside the top 50. For a player who has never gone beyond the last eight at a Slam, this will be the true test of his credentials.

The Australian’s relentless defense and counterpunching style make him a tricky opponent for anyone, but history is working against him — he is 0-4 in Grand Slam quarterfinals, all of them straight-sets defeats. While this is technically his “easiest” matchup at this stage on paper, it could also prove the most dangerous given Auger-Aliassime’s resurgent confidence.

Head-to-Head & Match Outlook

Auger-Aliassime leads the rivalry 2-1, including a notable hard-court win in Cincinnati. De Minaur claimed their last meeting on clay in Rome, but on this surface, the Canadian’s power game has the edge.

Expect a classic contrast of styles: Auger-Aliassime looking to shorten points with first-strike tennis, while De Minaur grinds rallies and tries to draw errors. The Canadian’s recent form suggests he has the belief and shot-making to finish points on his terms.

📌 Official Pick
Felix Auger Aliassime ML (+130)

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