Rice vs Texas State Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl) January 1, 2026

📅 Date: Thursday, January 1, 2026
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX

Rice limps into Fort Worth after a brutal finish to the regular season — a 52–3 loss to South Florida capped a 5–7 campaign and left more questions than answers. That kind of collapse isn’t just a bad result; it exposes schematic and personnel weaknesses that are hard to fix in a short bowl prep window.

Offensively Rice is limited and one-dimensional. Chase Jenkins has been the primary passer but his numbers are modest (around 1,000 yards on the year) and the Owls lean heavily on Quinton Jackson to carry the ground load. Their passing game lives underneath routes and short gains, which makes it difficult to keep pace when the opponent can score quickly.

Defensively the Owls have been gashed late in the season. Rice surrendered 50-plus points twice down the stretch and lost three of its final four, so stopping explosive plays and sustaining stops has been a recurring problem. That’s a matchup nightmare against a team built to create chunk plays.

Texas State, by contrast, closes the year with momentum and an offense that can do damage in multiple ways. Brad Jackson threw for over 3,000 yards and pairs with Lincoln Pare’s 1,000-yard rushing season to give the Bobcats a true dual-threat identity that stresses defenses horizontally and vertically.

Beau Sparks is a legitimate game‑changer in the receiving corps — over 1,100 yards and a consistent big‑play threat — while Chris Dawn Jr. and others provide secondary options that keep coverages honest. That balance forces opponents to defend the entire field, which opens lanes for both the run and the quarterback on designed runs or scrambles.

Texas State’s offense finished among the national leaders in total yards and points, and they generated a ton of explosive plays (90 plays of 30+ yards). That kind of play distribution shortens the clock for opponents and turns any defensive lapse into immediate scoreboard damage.

Rice’s scheme — a run‑heavy, gun‑option look — isn’t built to win a shootout, and they’ll be without their starting QB, which further limits their upside. When you combine that with a defense that ranks near the bottom of the conference in key categories, the path to an upset looks narrow.

Coaching and continuity tilt toward the Bobcats as well. Texas State finished strong, earned multiple all‑conference honors on offense, and enters the bowl with a clear identity and playmakers who are likely to return next season. That continuity matters in bowl preparation and execution.

📌 Official Picks
Texas State -15.5 -115 I expect Texas State to control tempo, strike quickly when they see mismatches, and force Rice into uncomfortable, high‑variance scripts. Back Texas State to cover — the matchup, recent form, and offensive firepower point to a multi‑score Bobcats win.

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