New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Week 13 November 30, 2025

📅 Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL

Miami’s defense and New Orleans’ offensive identity point to the same outcome for Tyler Shough: a capped passing day. In three starts, his yardage has come in at 176, 282, and 243 on 24, 27, and 43 attempts — an average of 233.7 yards built on one volume spike and two controlled scripts. The Saints have shown their hand: when the game allows, they keep him in the mid-20s for attempts, lean on play-action, and avoid asking him to win from the pocket snap after snap. That’s not a knock — it’s a deliberate design choice to keep the offense on schedule.

The market setup reinforces that plan. New Orleans heads to Miami as a six-point dog with a 41.5 total — implied around 17 points for the Saints. That combination rarely yields high-volume passing unless the game goes off-script early. The optimal path for New Orleans is to shorten the game, feed the run, and pick their spots off play-action rather than chase explosives. If they hit that rhythm, Shough’s range narrows into the 26–30 attempt window, and his yardage ceiling moves south of this number.

On the other side, Miami is built to squeeze the middle of the field and speed up the clock on quarterbacks. They’ve allowed roughly 220 passing yards per game on modest volume, and they generate pressure at a top-tier rate with a heavy blitz profile. Since Week 8, opposing passers have found success against Miami in spots, but pressure has been the great equalizer — and Shough’s splits under heat have been rough: bottom-tier yards per attempt and adjusted completion when the pocket isn’t clean. That’s exactly the lever Miami will pull to force short throws and kill drives.

Scheme fit matters here. The Saints don’t want Shough living in second-and-long, scanning full-field progressions. They want first-read, quick-game answers, and shot plays only when protection and field position cooperate. Against a defense that closes windows quickly and tackles well, those short completions turn into five-yard gains instead of chains-moving explosives. Without YAC spikes, it’s hard to stretch to 212 on a controlled attempt load.

There are paths to losing this bet, and they’re almost all game-flow driven. If Miami detonates the script with a couple early touchdowns, Shough’s attempts could climb into the high-30s. Even then, volume isn’t a guarantee of efficiency — pressure tends to drag yards per attempt down, and empty-calorie throws add up slowly. The other risk is two chunk plays flipping the result; that’s variance you live with on any quarterback under. Everything else — identity, matchup, total, and implied team scoring — stacks in favor of the under.

📌 Official Pick
Tyler Shough (New Orleans Saints) Under 211.5 Passing Yards -112

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