Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL 25-26 Week 8

📅 Date: Sunday, October 26, 2025
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium - Atlanta, GA

Bijan was stifled by San Francisco (40 yards on 14 carries), but the matchup on Sunday flips the script. Atlanta’s ground attack ranks top-five (136.3 rush ypg, 4.6 YPC) and Robinson himself is sitting at 5.4 YPC and 87.3 rushing yards per game; Miami’s run defense is historically porous, giving up 159.3 rush ypg and a league-high 51% run rate to opponents. Those are not small gaps — they’re the kind of differential that turns routine carries into chunk plays and consistent volume.

Personnel and scheme work in Atlanta’s favor. If the Falcons control the line and stick to heavier groupings, interior lanes open up for Robinson while play-action keeps linebackers honest. Atlanta converts third downs at a top-10 clip (42.3%), while Miami allows an alarmingly high third-down conversion rate (46.4%), which extends drives and naturally stacks more carries for the starter. In a script where the Falcons lead and eat clock, Bijan projects north of 20 attempts — enough opportunities for a 100-yard game.

Tactical matchup detail: Miami has yielded the most 20+ yard runs this year (10), which creates a clear explosive-run upside for Robinson; one or two long gains erase a lot of variance on a 100-yard line. Their front-seven grades poorly across multiple metrics (DVOA, PFF rush grade), and they’ve been susceptible to interior power runs and second-level cutbacks — exactly Bijan’s territory when Atlanta leans into downhill looks and spacing from play-action boots.

Risk is limited but real: if the Falcons fall behind dramatically and abandon the run, volume shrinks; likewise, an early long Miami drive could compress snaps. Those outcomes feel unlikely with Atlanta listed as favorites and their run game showing consistency. The matchup, volume path, and Miami’s structural weaknesses combine into a clean plan for Bijan to clear 100 rushing yards — I’ll take the plus-money.

📌 Official Picks

Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) 100+ Rushing Yards +120

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