Baylor vs Kansas Prediction & Betting Pick | College Basketball January 16, 2026

📅 Date: Friday, January 16, 2026
🕖 Time: 8:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Allen Fieldhouse - Lawrence, KS

Baylor walks into Allen Fieldhouse as an underdog, but this is the kind of matchup where their depth and scoring punch can actually travel. They’re sitting at 11–5, and while the road hasn’t been kind lately, this roster still puts up nearly 89 points per game on 50% shooting with real balance inside and out. When a team rebounds like Baylor does and pushes tempo off blocks and steals, they can hang around in almost any building.

Kansas, meanwhile, is leaning heavily on its defense at home. They’re giving up just under 68 points per game, and the Phog has been a fortress again — especially after that blowout over previously unbeaten Iowa State. Tre White is playing his best basketball of the season, and when he’s hitting threes at a 45% clip, Kansas becomes a different animal offensively. Add in Flory Bidunga’s rim protection, and you understand why oddsmakers shade toward the Jayhawks.

But this matchup isn’t just about Kansas’ strengths — it’s about Baylor’s ability to counter. The Bears have six players averaging double figures, and that depth matters when you’re facing a team that thrives on wearing opponents down. Baylor’s transition game and interior scoring can force Kansas into uncomfortable rotations, especially if the Bears control the glass early.

Kansas has been shaky away from home, but at Allen Fieldhouse they’ve been sharp. Still, Baylor’s scoring profile gives them a real shot to stay within striking distance. Even if Kansas dictates tempo, Baylor’s efficiency keeps them from falling into long droughts — and that’s exactly what you need when you’re catching a number this big.

The Jayhawks haven’t lost to Baylor at home since 2020, but spreads aren’t about history — they’re about matchups. And this one sets up for Baylor to compete for 40 minutes. Their rotation is deeper, their scoring is more balanced, and they have enough athleticism to challenge Kansas’ defensive pressure without folding.

Kansas will get their runs — they always do at home — but Baylor has the firepower to answer. If Nnaji gives them anything inside, even better. And if the Bears’ shooters find rhythm early, this number becomes even more appealing.

Kansas’ defense is legit, but Baylor’s offense is built to test it. The Bears don’t need to win outright; they just need to keep trading punches. With their scoring balance and rebounding edge, that’s a very realistic ask.

This feels like a game where Kansas edges it late, but Baylor hangs around long enough to cash. The +8 gives you room for a competitive finish, a late foul game, or even a backdoor cover if things get tight.

📌 Official Picks
Baylor +8 -125 — too many points for a team with this much scoring depth.

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