Baltimore Orioles (Shane Baz) at Los Angeles Angels (Ryan Johnson) Prediction & Betting Pick | MLB Regular Season June 23, 2026
📅 Date: Tuesday, June 23, 2026
🕖 Time: 9:38 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Angel Stadium - Anaheim, CA
Baltimore took Game 1 with ease, and Tuesday sets up as another spot where they should control the matchup from the jump. Shane Baz hasn’t been perfect this season, but the recent trend is what matters — the command is tightening, the fastball has more life, and the breaking stuff is finally landing where it needs to. A 4.04 ERA with a near‑20% strikeout rate doesn’t tell the whole story; he’s been sharper over his last few outings and draws one of the most strikeout‑prone lineups in baseball.
The Angels have been swinging it better lately, but they still strike out more than anyone in the league — 747 Ks, the most in MLB. And the matchup is familiar: Baz’s pitch mix mirrors Kyle Bradish’s, and Bradish carved this lineup on Monday. When a team struggles with a certain profile, they usually struggle again the next night. Baz’s slider‑curve combo should play extremely well here.
Los Angeles counters with Ryan Johnson, and this is where the gap between these teams becomes massive. Johnson’s MLB sample is small, but the results are impossible to ignore: 12.83 ERA, 2.33 WHIP, and a strikeout rate under 10%. He’s giving up hard contact, he’s walking hitters, and he hasn’t shown any ability to pitch out of trouble. Even dating back to last season, the profile hasn’t changed — he’s hittable, erratic, and vulnerable to big innings.
Baltimore’s offense is built to punish this type of pitcher. They’re averaging 4.7 runs per game, top‑10 in baseball, and they’ve been even better lately. The Orioles don’t need to be perfect on the road to score here — Johnson’s command issues alone create scoring opportunities. Add in the Angels’ bullpen, which owns the worst save rate in MLB (33.3%), and Baltimore should have traffic all night.
The Angels being without Mike Trout only widens the gap. Without their best bat, the lineup loses its anchor, and the supporting cast becomes far easier to pitch to. Baz doesn’t need to be dominant — he just needs to be solid. Against a lineup missing its centerpiece, that’s more than realistic.
Baz’s strikeout prop is also in a great spot. The Angels chase everything, and Baz’s stuff is built for whiffs when he’s ahead in counts. His Over 5.5 Ks is playable because the Angels’ approach gives him multiple paths to get there — elevated heaters, sliders off the plate, and long at‑bats that end with a punchout.
The outs prop is just as appealing. Baz has been stretched out, and with Baltimore’s bullpen being used heavily in recent games, he should get every chance to work into the sixth. The Angels’ high‑K, low‑walk profile helps him stay efficient, which is exactly what you want when betting Over 17.5 Outs.
Baltimore’s bullpen isn’t elite, but it’s significantly more reliable than the Angels’. And when you combine the better starter, better pen, and better lineup, the run line becomes the cleanest angle. Johnson’s volatility alone creates blowout potential, and Baltimore has the bats to take advantage.
The Orioles have also won three straight and look like a team settling into a groove. Their offense is balanced, their pitching is stabilizing, and they’re facing a team that’s been giving up runs in bunches. When a matchup is this lopsided on the mound, the run line becomes less about risk and more about value.
Everything points to Baltimore controlling this game: the pitching edge, the offensive edge, the bullpen edge, and the matchup edge. This is a spot where the Orioles should roll again.
📌 Official Picks
Baltimore Orioles -1.5 +115
Shane Baz (Orioles) Over 5.5 Strikeouts -110
Shane Baz (Orioles) Over 17.5 Outs -124
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