Venus Williams vs Karolina Muchova Prediction & Pick – US Open 2025 First Round
📅 Date: Thursday, August 25, 2025
🕖 Time: 7:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium – New York
This is likely to be an emotional night on Arthur Ashe Stadium as Venus Williams makes what is almost certainly her final US Open appearance. At 45 years old, the two-time champion remains a legend of the game, but the matchup against Karolina Muchova looks like a mountain too steep to climb.
🔹 Why I’m Backing the Under
Williams has shown she can still flash moments of brilliance — like her win over Peyton Stearns in Washington, where she won 71% of first-serve points — but sustaining that level against an elite shot-maker is another story. The reality is that since 2019, Venus has lost all four of her US Open matches in straight sets, and she hasn’t advanced past the opening round of a Slam since that same year.
Muchova, meanwhile, has made the semifinals in each of the last two editions of the US Open (2023 & 2024). Despite some injury concerns throughout her career, when healthy she’s one of the most versatile players on tour. Her ability to mix slices, drop shots, and change pace will force Williams into uncomfortable positions — making long rallies and extended sets unlikely.
🔹 The Numbers That Matter
Muchova at the US Open: 17–7 record (71% win rate), two straight semifinal appearances.
Williams at the US Open: 79–21 lifetime record, but no wins since 2019 (four straight first-round exits).
Recent Form: Williams is 1–2 in 2025 with losses to Magdalena Frech and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro.
Head-to-Head: Muchova already owns a straight-sets win over Williams (2019).
These stats highlight the gap between where Venus is now and where Muchova remains.
🔹 The Intangibles
Yes, the crowd will be electric for Venus, and Muchova will need to keep her composure. But the Czech has handled pressure on this stage before, taking down top seeds in back-to-back years. Unlike Williams, who is short on match fitness, Muchova enters New York with a recent semifinal at this event and the skillset to dictate play from the start.
🔹 Best Bet
Given Venus’s struggles to hold serve consistently and Muchova’s ability to exploit movement, I don’t expect this to drag into a competitive three-set battle. The most likely scenario is another straight-sets defeat for the American, keeping the match Under 18.5 games (-118).
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