Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Monday Night Football December 15, 2025

📅 Date: Monday, December 15, 2025
🕖 Time: 8:15 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Acrisure Stadium - Pittsburgh, PA

Achane’s been operating at RB1 level for weeks, and last Sunday only reinforced that — he left with a rib issue after playing roughly a third of the snaps but still finished with 92 rushing yards. Rib injuries can be touch-and-go, but they often clear up enough for a player to suit up the following week. Keep an eye on practice reports, but if he’s active and not limited, this prop looks very playable.

The recent tape is loud. Over his last four games he’s gone for 174, 120, 134, and 92 rushing yards — a 130-yard average across that span. He’s cleared the 79.5 mark in every outing and has been in the 90–170 range repeatedly. When a back lives in that neighborhood, a line set in the high 70s is simply behind the curve.

Volume and efficiency back the numbers up. Across those same contests Achane logged 22, 21, 22, and 7 carries — about 18 carries per game — and averaged 7.22 yards per carry. The seven-carry game came because he exited early; even with reduced touches he still hit 92 yards before leaving. That tells you this isn’t a prop that needs perfect usage to cash.

Game script favors him, too. Miami is a three-point favorite in a 42.5 total, which implies roughly 19.75 points for the Dolphins. Being the favorite increases the chance of a second-half, run-heavy approach to protect a lead and preserve carries for the lead back. In short: the projected script protects Achane’s workload.

Pittsburgh’s run defense has been porous. The Steelers are surrendering 105.8 rushing yards per game and about 23.9 rushing attempts to opposing backs. They’ve been gashed recently — one road team set a franchise rushing mark against them, and the Ravens piled up 217 yards last week. Pair that with Achane’s current form and the matchup looks favorable.

There are real risks. If Miami falls behind early, the Dolphins could pivot to more passing and cap his carries. Health is the other variable — the rib exit matters until practice reports say otherwise. Still, even in the limited snap game he cleared the number, which lowers the downside here.

Bottom line: assuming he’s active and not hampered, the combination of elite recent production, outstanding efficiency, and a matchup that hands out rushing yards makes Achane 80+ a strong play. I’m backing the over — confident this one hits if he’s on the field.

📌 Official Picks
De’Von Achane (Miami Dolphins) Over 79.5 Rushing Yards -112

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