Aryna Sabalenka vs Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah Prediction & Betting Pick | Australian Open Women January 18, 2026

📅 Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
🕖 Time: 3:00 AM EST
🏟️ Venue: Rod Laver Arena - Melbourne, Australia

Aryna Sabalenka opens her Melbourne campaign looking every bit like a player chasing another deep run, and the matchup sets up almost perfectly for her. She’s coming off a sharp title run in Brisbane, serving big, hitting clean, and carrying the kind of first‑strike confidence that usually steamrolls early‑round opponents. When her game is clicking this early in the season, these opening matches tend to be short and one‑sided.

Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah is talented and absolutely someone we’ll hear more about in the future, but this is a massive jump in level. She’s never been past the first round of a Slam, and she’s still ironing out the rough edges in her serve — 41 double faults last season tells you where the pressure points are. Against the world No. 1 on Rod Laver, those weaknesses get exposed quickly.

Sabalenka’s numbers to start 2026 are exactly what you want when backing an under: 21 aces to just four doubles, nearly 91% of service games held, and elite return efficiency. She’s winning almost half her return points and converting break chances at a high clip. That combination — heavy serve plus punishing returns — is why her early‑round Slam matches often fly under the total.

Rajaonah’s recent form doesn’t offer much resistance. She’s dropped two of her last three opening matches and hasn’t shown the consistency needed to extend rallies against someone who hits as big and as early as Sabalenka. Hard courts suit her game, but Sabalenka’s pace takes time away, and that’s usually where young players unravel.

Everything points toward a quick, business‑like performance from the top seed. Sabalenka has been ruthless in these spots for years, and with her confidence sky‑high after Brisbane, it’s hard to see this turning into anything competitive. Expect scoreboard pressure from the first ball and a match that wraps up fast.

📌 Official Picks
Under 15.5 Games -106 — Sabalenka should handle this in straight‑line fashion.

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