Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Thursday Night Football December 11, 2025

📅 Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
🕖 Time: 8:15 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Raymond James Stadium - Tampa, FL

Bijan Robinson has been one of the few bright spots in Atlanta’s season, and Thursday night sets up as another showcase for him. With 1,683 scrimmage yards already, he’s leading the league in total production, and his versatility has kept the Falcons’ offense afloat. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, Robinson has proven he’s the centerpiece, and that role only grows with Drake London sidelined.

The passing game is where this matchup tilts. Robinson ranks third on the team in receiving yards, averaging 46.3 per game, and he’s been a reliable outlet for Cousins when the pocket collapses. Without London, the Falcons lose their top target, which means Robinson’s involvement as a receiver should spike. He’s not just a checkdown option — he’s a legitimate weapon who can turn short throws into chunk gains.

Tampa Bay’s defense has been a problem against running backs catching passes. They’re giving up 53.9 receiving yards per game to the position, worst in the league. Robinson already torched them in Week 1 with six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown, and other backs have followed suit: James Cook with 66, Jahmyr Gibbs with 82, Christian McCaffrey with 57. This isn’t a one-off weakness; it’s a consistent leak.

Robinson’s usage backs the play. He’s cleared 37.5 receiving yards in eight of 13 games, and his target share has been steady even when the Falcons’ offense sputters. With London out, the passing tree shrinks, and Robinson’s role expands. Expect him to line up wide, catch screens, and work the middle against linebackers who’ve struggled to contain backs all season.

The Buccaneers’ defensive front can still disrupt the run game, but their inability to cover backs in space has been glaring. That’s where Robinson thrives. His route running and ability to create separation make him more than just a safety valve, and Cousins will lean on him to keep drives alive.

Game flow also favors the over. Tampa Bay is favored, which means Atlanta could be playing from behind. That scenario forces more passing volume, and Robinson’s involvement only increases when the Falcons chase points. Even in neutral scripts, his role is too important to fade.

📌 Official Picks
Bijan Robinson (Atlanta Falcons) Over 4.5 Receptions -102
With London out and Tampa Bay bleeding production to backs through the air, Robinson should see steady targets and clear this number.

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