Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott) at Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola) Prediction & Betting Pick | MLB Regular Season May 20, 2026

📅 Date: Wednesday, May 20, 2026
🕖 Time: 1:05 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Citizens Bank Park - Philadelphia, PA

The Reds and Phillies wrap up their series Wednesday afternoon, and this matchup has all the ingredients for a slower start on the scoreboard. Both teams come in with clear strengths, clear flaws, and two starting pitchers who—despite the surface numbers—can absolutely settle in early.

Cincinnati turns to Andrew Abbott, who’s been a mixed bag this season. The ERA sits at 4.21, the WHIP at 1.50, and the walks have piled up more than the Reds would like. But Abbott’s track record shows he’s better than the raw numbers suggest. He’s always been a guy who can navigate lineups when he’s locating, and Philadelphia’s offense, while powerful, has been streaky enough to allow a lefty to find a rhythm for a few innings.

The Reds’ bigger issue isn’t Abbott—it’s the team-wide inability to prevent runs. A 4.82 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP across the staff explains why they’ve dropped three of their last four. But early in games, Cincinnati has been more competitive, and Abbott’s pitch mix tends to play better the first time through the order.

Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola, who’s had a rougher start than anyone expected. A 5.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP don’t look like Nola at all, but the strikeout numbers are still strong, and his underlying metrics point toward positive regression. He’s been hurt by sequencing and a few bad innings—not a lack of stuff.

The Phillies as a team have been trending upward, winning five straight and finally getting consistent production from both the lineup and the rotation. But even during this streak, their offense hasn’t been explosive early in games. They’ve leaned on pitching and timely hitting, not first-inning fireworks.

Cincinnati’s offense has power, but it’s also one of the most strikeout-heavy lineups in baseball. That’s exactly the type of matchup Nola can exploit. If he’s commanding the curveball, he can get through the first few innings without much damage.

On the other side, Philadelphia’s bats have been better overall, but they’re still hitting just .235 as a team. They’ve been winning games with pitching depth and bullpen execution—not overwhelming early offense.

Both teams also sit in the bottom half of MLB in first-five scoring, and both starters have profiles that stabilize once they get into a groove. Abbott’s career ERA (3.51) and Nola’s career consistency tell a much clearer story than their current-season lines.

The Reds’ bullpen has been shaky, and the Phillies’ defense has been unreliable, but none of that matters for this play. We’re isolating the first five innings, where the matchup leans toward a quieter start.

With two pitchers due for better results, two lineups that don’t always get going early, and a getaway-day afternoon start, this sets up perfectly for a lower-scoring first half.

📌 Official Picks
Under 5.5 First 5 Innings -110

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