Troy vs James Madison Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football Sun Belt Championship December 5, 2025

📅 Date: Friday, December 5, 2025
🕖 Time: 7:00 PM PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Bridgeforth Stadium - Harrisonburg, VA

James Madison has been steamrolling the Sun Belt and walks into Harrisonburg with a real incentive to put on a show. They’re 11–1 with a top-10 profile on both sides of the ball, averaging 37.8 per game and giving up just 16. Troy’s a tough, well-coached team, but the gap in efficiency — especially early — is where this sets up cleanly for a first-half angle.

Troy’s defense is sturdy on paper, yet it’s been vulnerable against physical run games that stay on schedule. That’s JMU’s wheelhouse. The Dukes rank sixth nationally in rushing, and the rotation has been relentless — Jobi Malary just dropped 154 on Coastal while they piled up 525 total yards. When they get downhill, they squeeze the clock and stack possessions, which tilts first-half margins fast.

Quarterback play favors JMU out of the gate. Alonza Barnett has been decisive in the RPO and play-action game, and his legs add a stress point that forces linebackers to step forward. That unlocks the intermediate windows where the Dukes feast. Against Troy, that dual-threat dynamic means fewer third-and-longs, more scripted shots, and a higher early success rate.

Add the home-field in Harrisonburg and cold weather, and this becomes even more one-dimensional for Troy. If they can’t create explosives, they’re stuck trying to grind into a defense that’s top-10 in scoring and rarely misses tackles. That’s not the profile you want when the opposing offense is built to cash short fields and finish drives.

Motivation isn’t a question for JMU. CFP chatter may be murky, but style points matter if any door cracks open. Chesney’s move after the postseason is more likely to sharpen focus than distract — this is a group that’s been businesslike all year, with seven of eight league wins by double digits and multiple three-score romps. They’ve shown no interest in easing off early.

The matchup history leans low-scoring, but the current version of JMU is different — more balanced, more explosive, and faster at finding the script. If Troy leans into ball control, the downside is limited possessions; the upside for JMU is short fields and a defense that flips the ball back quickly. That’s exactly how first halves stretch.

Big number? Sure. But this is the spot JMU has covered all season — start hot, squeeze the run, and stack points while the other side is still solving the front. I want my money on their opening 30 minutes, not the full-game variance once substitutions and clock math kick in.

📌 Official Picks
James Madison -13.5 First Half -105

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