Boise State vs South Florida Prediction โ NCAAF Week 1 Betting Pick
๐
Date: Thursday, August 28, 2025
๐ Time: 5:30 PM EST
๐๏ธ Venue: Raymond James Stadium โ Tampa, Florida
The 2025 college football season kicks off Thursday night in Tampa as the Boise State Broncos travel to face the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium. Boise State comes off a 12-win campaign and a College Football Playoff appearance, while USF returns quarterback Byrum Brown after last seasonโs injury setback. Oddsmakers expect fireworks with a total set at 63, but the numbers point to value on the under.
๐น Why the Under is in Play
Boise Stateโs offense lost a major piece when running back Ashton Jeanty โ the No. 6 pick in the NFL Draft โ left for the pros. While quarterback Maddux Madsen (3,018 yards, 23 TDs in 2024) provides stability, the Broncos are likely to lean on a running-back committee behind one of the best offensive lines in the Mountain West. That approach chews clock rather than fuel shootouts.
Defensively, Boise is still strong. Despite turnover, the Broncos return key tacklers and bolstered their secondary with transfers from Notre Dame, Arizona, and Eastern Washington. This unit ranked 37th nationally in scoring defense (22.6 ppg allowed) last year and should be able to limit USFโs explosive plays.
USF, meanwhile, welcomes back dual-threat QB Byrum Brown, who became the programโs first-ever 3,000-yard passer in 2023. His return raises the Bullsโ ceiling, but he is coming off a serious leg injury and could need time to regain rhythm. Even at full health, USFโs offense tends to be streaky โ hot in spurts, then stalling for drives at a time.
๐น The Key Stats
Boise State: Averaged 37.3 points per game in 2024 (5th nationally), but also played balanced football with a top-40 defense.
USF: Allowed 29.8 points per game (100th FBS) last season; offense dropped sharply after Brownโs injury.
Head-to-Head Pace Outlook: Both teams prefer tempo, but opening games often bring misfires, penalties, and stalled drives.
๐น Matchup Outlook
South Florida will attack through the air early with Brown, but Boiseโs defensive front and depth in the secondary should force long drives instead of quick strikes. On the other side, expect Madsen and Boiseโs run game to control tempo, shorten possessions, and wear down the Bulls.
With the Week 1 rust factor, a likely emphasis on ground-and-pound from Boise, and Brown easing back into live action, points may not come as easy as the market suggests.
๐น Best Bet
Both programs have the talent to score in bunches, but Boiseโs balance and South Floridaโs inconsistency make the Under 63 (-110) the sharper play in this opener.
๐ Official Pick: Under 63 (-110)
๐จ Upgrade to #TeamPremium ๐จ
Ready to take your betting game to the next level? Join our exclusive #TeamPremium community and gain instant access to:
โ
Daily Premium Picks & Max Plays
โ
Advanced Stats & In-Depth Analysis
โ
Direct Access to Proven Sharp Strategies
๐ Use code MONEY at checkout and save 30% on your membership today.
๐ Upgrade now at gamblersdream.com
Donโt just follow the picks โ profit with the Premium edge.
