Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Monday Night Football October 5, 2026
The box scores don't tell the full story with Kyle Pitts right now. If you watched Atlanta's win over Green Bay, you probably noticed he was a lot more involved than the final stat line suggests. There were multiple plays where Pitts found open space downfield and was in position for chunk gains, but Michael Penix Jr. chose to go elsewhere, often connecting with Drake London instead. The opportunity was there, even if the production wasn't.
That's the kind of situation I like buying into. Public sentiment is going to be heavily focused on London after his monster performance, and deservedly so. But when an offense has a player consistently getting open, it's usually only a matter of time before those missed opportunities turn into catches.
Atlanta finally looked like the team many expected coming into the season. Penix returned, Bijan Robinson dominated the game on the ground, and the offense rolled up nearly 500 total yards against Green Bay. That performance should force opposing defenses to pay extra attention to Robinson and London moving forward.
From New Orleans' perspective, slowing down those two stars will be priority number one. Defensive coordinators don't ignore a back coming off 194 rushing yards or a receiver who just posted 194 receiving yards. The Saints are almost certainly going to dedicate resources toward limiting Atlanta's biggest weapons.
That naturally creates opportunities for secondary targets, and Pitts is the player who stands out most. He doesn't need eight or nine catches to cash this number. One or two explosive plays can get him most of the way there, and he remains a player with a significant athletic advantage against linebackers and safeties.
The coaching staff continues to publicly support his role within the offense as well. Despite the lack of headline production, Pitts maintained a strong route participation rate and spent plenty of snaps working from the slot, where he can create matchup problems that are difficult to scheme against.
What I like most is that we're not asking for a huge game. This isn't a 50-yard or 60-yard line. We're looking for just 30 receiving yards from a player who is still running starter-level routes and remains part of Atlanta's weekly game plan.
The matchup against New Orleans is another reason I'm interested. The Saints have quietly allowed opposing tight ends to find success through the first three weeks. Sam LaPorta finished with 48 receiving yards, Mark Andrews posted 49, and Brock Bowers erupted for 116. Even backup tight end Michael Mayer chipped in with 32 yards.
Those numbers suggest this defense can be attacked in the middle of the field, particularly by athletic pass-catching tight ends. That happens to be exactly where Pitts does most of his work. Atlanta should have chances to exploit those areas, especially if the Saints commit extra defenders toward London and Robinson.
Divisional games are often decided by role players making key plays in critical moments. London and Bijan will draw the attention, but Pitts is positioned to benefit from the defensive adjustments that come with that. At this number, I think the market is still pricing him based on recent box scores rather than his actual involvement.
For me, this is a classic buy-low spot. The routes are there, the opportunities are there, and the matchup is better than it looks at first glance. I'm expecting Pitts to finally turn some of those near-misses into production on Monday night.
📌 Official Pick
Kyle Pitts Over 29.5 Receiving Yards -113
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