Sabalenka hasn’t been in top gear lately, but this matchup gives her a perfect runway to settle in. Even when her form dips, her opening‑round Slam record stays elite — 15 straight R1 wins, all in straight sets, and she’s covered this kind of spread in almost all of them. Osorio fights hard, but she doesn’t have the pace or the weapons to keep Sabalenka from dictating. Add in Osorio’s rough summer, her 2‑13 record vs top‑10 players, and a lopsided loss to Ann Li last week, and you get a matchup where Sabalenka’s power should take over quickly. If she keeps the double faults under control, this has all the signs of a short, one‑way opener.