Memphis at Tulane Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football October 16, 2026
This is one of those spots where volume, matchup, and offensive identity all point in the same direction. Memphis has built its offense around running the football, and Jaylin Carter has become the player everything flows through. When the Tigers need a drive, a momentum swing, or a big play, the ball usually ends up in Carter's hands.
The production has been elite all season. Carter is averaging 107.5 rushing yards per game, ripping off 7.3 yards per carry, and handling more than a third of Memphis' rushing workload. Those aren't just solid numbers, they're some of the best in the country.
What I like most is that his role keeps growing. He's recorded at least 12 carries in five of six games and has clearly separated himself as the featured back in this offense. Memphis trusts him in every situation, whether it's early downs, red-zone work, or closing out games.
The recent form is impossible to ignore. Carter exploded for 183 yards and four touchdowns against Arkansas State, then followed it up with 132 yards and two more scores versus UAB. That's not a player running hot for one week. That's a back consistently finding room and taking advantage of it.
The matchup is equally appealing. Tulane has struggled against the run all season, allowing 218.6 rushing yards per game, which ranks near the bottom of the FBS. Teams have consistently moved the ball on the ground against this defense, and Memphis has one of the strongest rushing attacks they'll see all year.
When I break down Tulane's front seven, the lack of disruption stands out. The Green Wave have generated very little backfield penetration, recording only a handful of sacks and a below-average tackle-for-loss rate. That's a dangerous combination against a rushing offense that ranks seventh nationally.
Memphis should also enter this game with a clear plan. Last season's loss to Tulane featured a running game that never found its footing, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers made establishing Carter an early priority. Sometimes revenge angles get overstated, but this feels like a legitimate motivational spot.
Another thing working in Carter's favor is game script. Memphis averages 38.5 points per game and should consistently move the football against this defense. Successful offenses create rushing volume, especially when playing with a lead or protecting one in the second half.
The number itself is reasonable compared to his season average. Carter is clearing this line by more than 20 yards per game, and he doesn't need another explosive 150-yard performance to get there. A typical workload with average efficiency puts him firmly in range.
Even if Tulane focuses on slowing him down, Memphis' balanced offense makes stacking the box difficult. The Tigers have enough playmakers through the air to punish defenses that overcommit against the run, which should create favorable rushing lanes throughout the night.
When I put the matchup, workload, recent form, and offensive philosophy together, Carter checks every box I want in a rushing prop. Memphis wants to run the football, Tulane has struggled stopping the run, and Carter continues to produce at one of the highest levels in college football.
📌 Official Pick
Jaylin Carter (Memphis) Over 85.5 Rush Yards -122
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