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Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Week 4 October 3, 2026

The player prop board offers plenty to like in Colts vs. Commanders, and I'm backing volume and matchup advantages over surface-level results. Josh Downs has emerged as Daniel Jones' clear go-to target, seeing 20 targets over his last two games while facing a Washington secondary that's been getting torched by opposing receivers. On the other side, Indianapolis' defense continues to struggle against mobile quarterbacks and missed tackles remain a major issue, setting up well for both Marcus Mariota's rushing production and Jacory Croskey-Merritt's workload on the ground. As for Jonathan Taylor, the number looks a touch too high given his current efficiency and the possibility of a more pass-heavy game script. Four props, four strong angles, all backed by what we've seen on the field through three weeks. 🔥

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