New York Yankees (Will Warren) at Kansas City Royals (Michael Wacha) Prediction & Betting Pick | MLB Regular Season May 25, 2026

📅 Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
🕖Time: 3:40 PM EST
🏟️Venue: Kauffman Stadium - Kansas City, MO

New York rolls into Kansas City with momentum after Aaron Judge ripped a walk‑off two‑run shot to beat Tampa Bay, and that kind of emotional win tends to carry over into the next game. The Yankees haven’t been perfect on the road, but they’ve been steady enough — and with their pitching staff sitting top‑five in ERA, they’re built for low‑scoring, grind‑heavy matchups like this one. That’s exactly why I’m backing the first‑five under.

Will Warren gets the ball for New York, and while his season ERA sits at 3.61, the Yankees have consistently put him in positions to succeed. He doesn’t overpower hitters, but he limits damage early and keeps the ball in the yard — a perfect profile for a pitcher-friendly park like Kauffman Stadium. His last outing wasn’t spotless, but he battled through five innings and gave his team a chance. Against a Royals lineup that ranks bottom‑five in runs and OPS, Warren should settle in quickly.

Kansas City’s offense has been one of the biggest issues during their recent slide. They’ve dropped eight of their last ten, and even in Sunday’s win over Seattle, it took a vintage Salvador Perez performance to drag them across the finish line. The Royals simply don’t generate enough consistent lift or traffic to threaten early against quality pitching. Their .236 team average and .376 slugging percentage tell the story — lots of contact, not much punch.

The Royals haven’t announced a starter yet, but their rotation has quietly been one of the few bright spots. Twenty‑seven quality starts is no fluke, and their 4.16 ERA is respectable considering the lack of run support. Whoever gets the ball should benefit from facing a Yankees lineup that, while powerful, has been streaky on the road and prone to slow starts.

New York’s offense is top‑five in runs and OPS, but they’re also hitting just .234 as a team. They rely heavily on extra‑base hits, and Kauffman Stadium suppresses home runs more than almost any park in the league. That’s a natural under environment, especially early when both starters are fresh and the game hasn’t opened up into bullpen chess.

The Yankees’ pitching staff is the real anchor here. A 3.30 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and the fourth‑fewest runs allowed in baseball — this group doesn’t give away freebies. Their strikeout‑to‑walk ratio is elite, and they’ve held opponents to just 7.5 hits per nine innings. That’s exactly the type of profile that suffocates a low‑power offense like Kansas City.

Kansas City’s pitching numbers also support a slower start. Their staff allows 4.41 runs per nine, but the first time through the order they’ve been far more effective. Their bullpen has been inconsistent, but again — we’re isolating the first five innings, where the Royals’ arms have been at their best.

Warren’s career numbers aren’t flashy, but he’s been reliable enough early in games to trust in this spot. His WHIP is higher than ideal, but he tends to work out of jams and avoid the big inning. Against a Royals lineup that ranks 28th in scoring, the matchup leans heavily toward a quiet first half.

The Royals’ defense has also been sharp — top‑five in fielding percentage — which helps keep innings clean and prevents extended rallies. Combine that with New York’s top‑seven defensive efficiency, and you get a game where both teams are converting balls in play into outs at a high rate.

With two inconsistent offenses, a pitcher‑friendly park, and two staffs that match up well early, the first‑five under is the sharpest angle on the board. New York has the better lineup and the better bullpen, but the early innings should be tight, controlled, and low‑scoring.

📌 Official Picks
Under 4.5 First 5 Innings -106

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