Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs Prediction & Betting Pick | NBA Western Conference Finals Game 4 May 24, 2026
📅 Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
🕖 Time: 7:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Frost Bank Center - San Antonio, TX
Game 4 sets up as a pressure spot for San Antonio, and the first half is where they need to punch back. After getting outplayed for three straight quarters in Game 3, the Spurs return home knowing they can’t afford another slow response. They actually opened well on Friday — up 31–26 after one — but once OKC’s pace kicked in, the game flipped fast. That early burst is exactly why I’m backing San Antonio -1.5 First Half.
Oklahoma City has been rolling, but they’re also walking into this one shorthanded. Ajay Mitchell is already ruled out, and Jalen Williams is trending toward a game‑time call with a hamstring issue. Depth has carried OKC all postseason, but losing two high‑usage creators on the road against a desperate Spurs team changes the dynamic. The Thunder can still win — but the first half becomes a different conversation.
San Antonio’s biggest issue in Game 3 wasn’t effort; it was ball security. Fifteen turnovers against a team that thrives on live‑ball mistakes is a death sentence. At home, with cleaner execution, the Spurs should stabilize early. They’ve been one of the league’s best first‑half teams all season, especially in their own building, where they’re 32–8 and routinely set the tone with physicality and tempo.
The Thunder, meanwhile, have been winning with absurd efficiency. Their 2.3 assist‑to‑turnover ratio in this series is elite, and their willingness to move the ball punished San Antonio’s traps on Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander. But that also means the Spurs now have film on OKC’s counters — and Gregg Popovich teams historically adjust well after being carved up by role players.
Shai still got his 26 in Game 3, but the Spurs forced him into 6-of-17 shooting. The problem was everything around him. Jared McCain and Jaylin Williams combined for 42 points and 9 threes — shots San Antonio is willing to live with long‑term. That’s exactly why I’m on SGA Under 37.5 Pts+Asts. The Spurs’ entire defensive plan is built around making him a passer, and with fewer weapons available, those passing lanes tighten.
Chet Holmgren is another key angle. He’s been impactful defensively, but his scoring has been inconsistent on the road. San Antonio’s length and physicality inside have bothered him all series, and with the Spurs likely to emphasize rim protection early, I’m backing Chet Holmgren Under 7.5. This matchup hasn’t been friendly to him, and OKC’s perimeter explosion in Game 3 masked how limited his offensive touches were.
San Antonio’s offense should also look more organized early. Wembanyama was efficient in Game 3, but the Spurs didn’t get him enough touches in the second and third quarters. Expect a more deliberate approach early — post touches, mismatches, and forcing OKC to defend in the half court instead of running off turnovers.
The Spurs’ home splits matter here. They rebound better, shoot better, and defend better in this building. Their crowd also tends to swing momentum early, especially after a loss. With their season essentially on the line, the first 24 minutes should be their sharpest stretch of the night.
OKC has been the better team overall, but this is a situational spot — injuries, desperation, and home‑court urgency all point toward San Antonio coming out with force. The Thunder can still make their run later, but the first half belongs to the Spurs more often than not.
With the series hanging in the balance, expect San Antonio to clean up the turnovers, tighten their rotations, and throw the first punch. That’s where the value sits.
📌 Official Picks
San Antonio Spurs -1.5 First Half -112
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) Under 37.5 Pts & Asts -112
Chet Holmgren (Thunder) Under 7.5 -106
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