Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Week 5 Monday Night Football

📅 Date: Monday, October 6, 2025
🕖 Time: 8:15 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: EverBank Stadium – Jacksonville, FL

Xavier Worthy returned last week and made an immediate impact for the Chiefs, finishing with 83 receiving yards on 5-of-8 targets, plus 38 rushing yards on two carries. He ran 62.5% of the team’s routes, had a 21.6% target share, and a 27.6% first-read share, showing he’s firmly Patrick Mahomes’ top outside option. Worthy also demonstrated his versatility by contributing in the running game, helping to stretch defenses both vertically and horizontally.

Jacksonville’s secondary is opportunistic—they’ve forced nine interceptions—but they’ve allowed the ninth-most passing yards in the NFL. That creates an excellent matchup for Worthy, who thrives against defenses that give space to fast outside threats. Even with the Jaguars’ pass-rush ability, Worthy’s quickness and Mahomes’ pocket presence should allow him to consistently get open downfield.

This game also comes after the Chiefs’ breakout performance against Baltimore, where they posted 382 total yards and 37 points, doubling their per-game output from the first three weeks. Worthy’s return was a big part of that, and as his snap count increases toward 70-75% or higher, he’s likely to see even more targets and red-zone opportunities. With Mahomes spreading the ball to multiple weapons, Worthy should emerge as the primary deep threat against a Jaguars secondary that struggles to cover the top outside receiver.

Expect the Chiefs to lean on Worthy in both the passing and rushing game, especially in critical third-down situations. With Jacksonville’s offense more reliant on forcing turnovers and getting big plays, Kansas City may control the clock and tempo, giving Worthy plenty of chances to rack up yards.

📌 Official Pick:
Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs) Over 65.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards -114

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