Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Week 5 (2025-26)

Date: Sunday, October 5, 2025
🕖 Time: 4:25 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, CA

The Los Angeles Chargers will look to bounce back after a tough 21-18 loss to the Giants, and once again, Quentin Johnston will be central to their offensive attack.

Johnston has quietly evolved into one of the NFL’s most consistent downfield producers this season. Through four games, the former TCU standout is averaging 84.3 receiving yards per game, hitting Over 63.5 yards in all four outings. He’s become the clear WR1 in this offense, seeing double-digit targets in back-to-back games and commanding 33 total looks over the last three weeks.

His chemistry with Justin Herbert is undeniable. Herbert’s comfort extending plays has directly benefited Johnston — three of the wideout’s four touchdowns have come on second or third reads after the pocket breaks down. The Chargers’ passing game has accounted for nearly 70% of their total yardage, and their red-zone efficiency (77.8%) ranks second-best in the league, driven largely by Herbert’s confidence in Johnston to win contested catches.

Washington’s secondary, meanwhile, has been a liability. The Commanders rank 27th in passing yards allowed per game, and their young defensive backfield has struggled to contain big-bodied receivers who can stretch the field. Even when they play deep, miscommunication and busted coverages have allowed several explosive gains — exactly the type of looks Johnston thrives on.

With Jayden Daniels giving Washington’s offense some life, this game is unlikely to turn into an early blowout, meaning Herbert will continue to air it out throughout all four quarters. Johnston’s combination of target volume, deep-threat ability, and red-zone involvement makes him a strong candidate to clear his receiving yard prop once again.

📊 Key Angles:

• Averaging 10+ targets per game since Week 3

• Over 62.5 receiving yards in every game this season

• Commanders allowing 285+ passing yards per game (27th NFL)

• Chargers passing on nearly 70% of plays

📌 Official Pick:
Quentin Johnston (Los Angeles Chargers) – Over 63.5 Receiving Yards -112

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