Jannik Sinner vs Lorenzo Musetti Prediction & Betting Pick | US Open Quarter-Final
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Date: Wednesday, September 2, 2025
๐ Time: 8:30 PM EST
๐๏ธ Venue: Arthur Ashe Stadium, New York
Itโs an all-Italian showdown in New York as world No. 1 Jannik Sinner faces compatriot Lorenzo Musetti in the US Open quarterfinals. Sinner comes into this clash as the overwhelming favorite, riding a dominant hardcourt streak, while Musetti is enjoying a timely resurgence but faces a monumental task against the defending champion.
Jannik Sinner: The Benchmark on Hard Courts
Sinner has been virtually untouchable in 2025. After a slight wobble against Denis Shapovalov in the third round, he obliterated Alexander Bublik 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 in the last 16 โ a player who entered that match on an 11-match winning streak and hadnโt been broken all tournament.
The Italian created 17 break chances, committed only 16 unforced errors, and sent a clear message to the field: his title defense is alive and well.
Key numbers underline his dominance:
25 sets at 6-0 or 6-1 this season.
21-5 career record at the US Open.
25 consecutive hardcourt Slam wins.
Sinnerโs mix of relentless baseline power, improved serve, and tactical precision has made him the most complete player on tour. Unless Carlos Alcaraz stops him in the final, he looks destined to lift the trophy again.
Lorenzo Musetti: A Surprise Run
Musetti, the Italian No. 2, arrived in New York with just one win post-French Open but has rediscovered form at the perfect time. His run includes wins over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, David Goffin, Flavio Cobolli, and Jaume Munar, dropping just one set across those matches.
This is his third career Grand Slam quarterfinal, and he has converted both previous ones into semifinals (Wimbledon 2024, Roland Garros 2025). However, the challenge here is far greater:
0-6 career record vs top-5 players in Grand Slams.
2-0 head-to-head deficit vs Sinner (no sets won).
15-0 record for Sinner vs fellow Italians.
Musettiโs variety โ especially his backhand slice and net play โ will be crucial, but sustaining that over best-of-five against Sinnerโs firepower looks unlikely.
Match Outlook
This is their first hardcourt meeting, and it heavily favors Sinner. Musetti has the flair to entertain, but Sinnerโs ability to apply constant baseline pressure should prevent his compatriot from finding any rhythm.
Unless Sinner suffers an unexpected dip, this should be another straight-sets win for the top seed.
๐ Official Pick:
Jannik Sinner -7.5 Games (-120)
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