Sam Houston State at New Mexico State Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football Week 6

📅 Date: Thursday, October 1, 2025
🕖 Time: 9:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium – Las Cruces, New Mexico

The Sam Houston Bearkats are still chasing their first win of the season, but this looks like the best opportunity yet. At 0-4, the record doesn’t tell the full story. Sam Houston has faced a brutal schedule with three games as double-digit underdogs and another as a touchdown dog against Hawaii. Simply put, they’ve been punching above their weight against superior competition, including a shutout loss to Texas in Week 4. Now, for the first time this year, the Bearkats enter as favorites, and this is a perfect buy-low spot.

Why Back Sam Houston State?

Head coach Phil Longo is known for his offensive background, and this matchup gives him a chance to finally showcase it. The Aggies’ defense is among the worst in the nation, surrendering explosive plays through the air and struggling to contain the run. Sam Houston should be able to get the offense moving after a rough outing against Texas, and coming off a bye week gives the Bearkats not just fresh legs but also a full prep advantage.

Meanwhile, New Mexico State (2-2) is sliding in the other direction. After wins over Bryant and Tulsa, they’ve lost two straight and now have to regroup on a short turnaround. Their 38-20 loss to New Mexico exposed major issues on both sides of the ball, and the Aggies have been inconsistent under center. While NMSU does have some playmakers, they’ve been unable to put together four full quarters of clean football.

Key Matchup

The Bearkats’ defense has quietly held up against elite competition and should be serviceable enough here. Their job will be limiting explosive shots downfield. If they can keep NMSU in check, SHSU should control the pace. On offense, even modest efficiency from the ground game should be enough to exploit a shaky Aggie defense.

Outlook

This feels like a game that won’t be decided until late in the fourth quarter, but the motivational and situational edges line up for Sam Houston. They’re rested, hungry, and finally on equal footing against an opponent that doesn’t massively outclass them in talent.

📌 Official Pick:
Sam Houston State Money Line (-124)

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