Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL 25-26 Week 4 Monday Night Football

📅 Date: Monday, September 29, 2025
🕖 Time: 1:15 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Empower Field at Mile High - Denver, Colorado

Denver Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins has firmly established himself as the lead back in Denver’s offense, and Monday Night Football presents a prime opportunity for him to hit his rushing yardage prop. The current line sits at 64.5 rushing yards (-112), and all indicators point to this being a strong over play.

Why Dobbins is Primed to Hit the Over

1. Consistent Production:
   Through three weeks, Dobbins has already demonstrated his reliability:

• Week 1 vs TEN: 16 carries, 63 yards, 1 TD

• Week 2 @ IND: 14 carries, 76 yards, 1 TD

• Week 3 @ LAC: 11 carries, 83 yards, 1 TD

Even in Week 1, he missed the line by a single yard, and since then, he has increased efficiency per carry despite a slight dip in volume.

1. Favorable Matchup:
   Cincinnati’s defense has been vulnerable to running backs in recent weeks:

• J. Mason (MIN) — 16/116

• T. Etienne (JAX) — 14/71

• D. Sampson (CLE) — 12/29

The Bengals allow the 14th most rushing yards per game (119 YPG) and have struggled to contain lead backs once teams get ahead. Denver’s offensive line has the potential to open lanes for Dobbins, especially if the Broncos establish the early advantage.

1. Snap Share & Backfield Clarity:
   The Broncos drafted RJ Harvey, but Dobbins has clearly taken over:

• Week 3 — 67% snap share

• Harvey — only 15 snaps (29%) and 2 carries

The trend indicates that Dobbins will get the bulk of touches, especially in a game where Denver is expected to control tempo and run the ball in the second half.

1. Game Script Advantage:
   The Broncos are projected as large home favorites, and if they gain an early lead, expect Dobbins to see even more carries in clock-chewing, lead-protecting situations. Denver thrives when it can control the line of scrimmage and dominate the run, and this game script sets up perfectly for him to reach 64.5+ yards.

2. Historical Reliability:
   Dobbins consistently hits yardage marks against defenses of similar caliber. Given his form, volume, and matchup, the odds are heavily in his favor for Monday night.

📌 Official Pick
J.K. Dobbins (Denver Broncos) Over 64.5 Rushing Yards -112

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