Naomi Osaka vs Maddison Inglis Prediction & Betting Pick | Tennis Australian Open (Women) January 24, 2026

📅 Date: Saturday, January 24, 2026
🕖 Time: 5:00 AM EST
🏟️ Venue: Rod Laver Arena - Melbourne, Australia

Osaka looks like she’s finding the old gear again — the kind of power and timing that made her a multiple‑major champion. She hasn’t been flawless, but the big shots are back and she’s closing out tight moments. That’s the core reason I’m leaning toward a short match here.

Inglis is the feel‑good story of the draw: through qualifying, then two three‑set wins to reach round three. She’s earned everything so far and the home crowd will be loud. But those wins have come at a cost — physically and mentally — and she’s already played more tennis than Osaka this fortnight.

Osaka’s route hasn’t been easy either; she’s had to scrap through consecutive three‑setters. Still, those matches have shown she can impose her game when it matters. Against Cîrstea she held serve at key moments and finished strong in the decider, which is exactly the profile you want when facing a gritty opponent who will try to extend rallies.

This one projects as a contrast in styles. Inglis lives on long points and break chances — she’s created an absurd number of opportunities this event — while Osaka shortens points with depth and pace. If Osaka gets her first‑serve percentage up and keeps the ball heavy, Inglis won’t have the time to manufacture the same number of break chances.

Fitness is a real edge for Osaka here. Inglis’s three‑hour, 20‑minute battle with Siegemund is impressive, but it’s the kind of match that takes something out of you. Osaka, by contrast, has shown she can lift her level across matches and still close them out without getting dragged into endless grinders.

The head‑to‑head context matters too: Inglis has limited experience beating top‑50 opponents on hard courts, and Osaka’s record against lower‑ranked players over the past year is strong. Those trends don’t guarantee anything, but they tilt the probability toward a cleaner, quicker Osaka win.

Mentally, Osaka has had to manage criticism and a charged atmosphere after some on‑court moments. She’s apologized and moved on, and that ability to reset is part of why she’s a champion. Facing a home favorite in front of a partisan crowd is never simple, but Osaka’s experience in big moments is a stabilizer.

Look at the numbers: Osaka’s ability to win big points on serve and convert break chances late in sets makes low‑game totals realistic. If she executes early and prevents Inglis from stringing together breaks, the match will end in three sets with relatively few games.

I’m not dismissing Inglis — she’s battle‑tested, confident, and dangerous when she’s rolling. But the combination of Osaka’s power, experience, and the wear on Inglis from qualifying plus two long matches points to a short, decisive contest.

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Under 19.5 Games -132

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