Central Michigan vs Northwestern Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football December 26, 2025

📅 Date: Friday, December 26, 2025
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Ford Field - Detroit, MI

Northwestern limps into Detroit with a clear urgency to flip the script. They’ve lost four of five, most recently a 20–13 defeat to Illinois where Preston Stone finished 19-of-36 with three interceptions. Stone’s 2,174 passing yards this season show volume, but the turnovers are the real problem — they’ve killed drives and handed opponents short fields late in games.

Stone’s struggles put more pressure on the run game and on Caleb Komolafe specifically. Komolafe has been the workhorse for Northwestern, piling up consistent carries and grinding out yards when the passing game stalls. Against a Central Michigan defense that hasn’t been elite against the run, Komolafe projects to see a heavy workload and plenty of short-yardage opportunities.

Central Michigan’s profile is different: streaky but capable. They’ve won three of five and come off a 21–3 loss to Toledo where Joe Labas went 19-of-30 with an interception. Labas has 1,676 passing yards on the year, and the Chippewas lean on a balanced attack with Nahree Biggins and mobile QB Angel Flores providing ground production.

This matchup sets up as a possession battle. Both teams have shown they can control the clock with the run, and neither has been consistently explosive through the air late in the season. That makes fewer possessions and longer drives likelier — the exact recipe for a sub‑44 total.

Defensively, Northwestern has been giving up about 29 points over their last five games, which looks worse than it is when you factor in turnovers and short fields. Central Michigan’s offense averaged 25.6 points across its last five, but that Toledo game was an outlier. Expect both defenses to play with an emphasis on limiting big plays and forcing methodical drives.

Komolafe’s role is the clearest edge in this card. He’s the guy Northwestern leans on when Stone is off, and his per-carry efficiency and volume make the 86.5 line beatable. If Northwestern wants to control tempo and protect their quarterback, Komolafe will get the early and mid-game touches that push him past this mark.

Game script is the deciding factor for the under. If both teams prioritize ball control and avoid risky downfield shots — which their late-season tendencies suggest — the clock will be the enemy of a high-scoring affair. Special teams or turnovers could change that, but the baseline leans low.

Main risks: a turnover-heavy game that gifts short fields, or one team suddenly finding a vertical passing rhythm. Those scenarios would inflate scoring quickly. Still, the safer projection is a grind-it-out bowl with limited possessions and a heavy dose of rushing attempts.

📌 Official Picks
Under 43 -110
Caleb Komolafe (Northwestern) Over 86.5 Rushing Yards -116

Volume and tempo favor Komolafe, and the matchup dynamics point toward a lower-scoring, possession-style game where the run dominates.

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