New England Patriots at New York Jets Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Week 17 December 28, 2025

📅 Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: MetLife Stadium - East Rutherford, NJ

New England’s 12–3 record isn’t just padding — every win still matters for seeding and the division, so they’ll treat this like a proper playoff‑prep game. The Jets, at 3–12, are in evaluation mode: auditions, injuries and roster churn. Brady Cook starting tightens the game plan for New York; this isn’t a spot to throw caution to the wind with a rookie under centre.

The core under case begins with the gap in offensive quality and recent form. The Patriots’ offense has been efficient lately while the Jets have cratered; those team‑level EPA splits show New England trending up and New York sliding downhill. Put bluntly: one side can sustain drives, the other struggles to manufacture consistent, explosive possessions.

Brady Cook’s profile screams conservative script. His numbers this season point to a quarterback who survives more than he creates — low EPA/play, high sack exposure and a modest yards‑per‑attempt profile. That kind of QB usually produces short, possession‑heavy drives that end in punts or field goals rather than quick touchdowns.

Drake Maye is the engine for New England, but even his efficiency doesn’t automatically force a shootout. Maye moves the ball well, completes at a high clip and gets the ball out quickly, which keeps drives on schedule but also limits the kind of broken‑play, high‑variance scoring that inflates totals when defences are porous.

Missing weapons on the Patriots matter. With Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte out, New England’s drives will skew longer and rely more on intermediate targets and tight‑end work. Hunter Henry becomes the finishing piece — his targets chew clock and his red‑zone role often turns trips into threes rather than sevens, which is exactly the under‑friendly outcome you want to see.

The Jets don’t offer much explosive upside right now. Their recent explosive play rate has cratered and their receiving corps has been inefficient; even when they move the chains it’s often long, time‑consuming drives that produce field goals or punts. Breece Hall can grind, but that tends to shorten the game rather than blow it open.

There are legitimate over triggers — New England’s run defense has slipped and the Jets are perfect in goal‑to‑go, so a couple of short fields or a defensive score could flip the script. Still, those are chaos events, not the baseline. The more likely path is methodical scoring, not a sudden scoring avalanche.

Injury context keeps the under lean practical. Both teams are missing key pieces that would normally create quick, explosive plays. New England’s front‑seven absences and the Jets’ missing pass‑rush and receiving talent both push the game toward conservative play‑calling and clock management.

I’m taking Under 42.5 because the most probable storyline is a controlled Patriots lead, possession football in the second half, and a Jets offense that struggles to sustain the kind of efficient, explosive drives needed to push this over. Play it with confidence — the upside for chaos exists, but it’s not the likeliest outcome.

📌 Official Picks
3u - NE Patriots -13.5 -110
1u - NE Patriots -16.5 +132
0.75u - NE Patriots -20.5 +215
0.25u - NE Patriots -23.5 +322

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