Phoenix Mercury at Minnesota Lynx Game 2 Prediction & Betting Pick | WNBA Playoffs Semifinals

📅 Date: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
🕖 Time: 7:30 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Target Center – Minneapolis, MN

The Minnesota Lynx defended home court in Game 1 of the WNBA Semifinals, using a dominant second-half surge to outlast the Phoenix Mercury and grab a 1-0 series lead. Now, they’ll look to protect their incredible home record again as the Mercury aim to even the series on Tuesday night.

Minnesota Lynx Outlook

The Lynx have been nearly unbeatable at home all season, boasting a 22-2 record (including playoffs) inside Target Center. In Game 1, Napheesa Collier led the way with her versatility, while Minnesota’s defensive adjustments after halftime completely flipped the game.

Minnesota forced Phoenix into tough looks by packing the paint and closing off driving lanes, holding the Mercury to just 25% shooting in the second half. The Lynx have now covered in both home playoff games and are yet to lose this postseason. With elite defenders like co-Defensive Player of the Year Alanna Smith, Minnesota continues to set the tone on both ends.

Phoenix Mercury Outlook

Phoenix actually controlled the first half of Game 1, leading at the break despite a rough 1-for-8 start from beyond the arc. Inside the arc, the Mercury were dominant early, making 21-of-31 twos (68%). But the story changed after halftime. They cooled to 7-of-21 inside and just 2-of-15 from deep as Minnesota’s defense clamped down.

The Mercury’s biggest issue has been spacing. Poor three-point shooting has plagued them all year, and when defenses collapse into the paint, their offense often stalls. Against a disciplined Minnesota team, that flaw becomes even more costly.

Betting Trends & Matchup History

Both teams ranked top five in defensive rating during the regular season, and that defensive intensity carried into Game 1, which finished with just 151 total points.

• The Mercury are 4-0 to the UNDER this postseason.

• The Lynx have stayed UNDER in two of their three playoff games.

• Phoenix is one of the best UNDER teams in the WNBA, with a 27-18-2 record to the UNDER this season.

• In five head-to-head meetings in 2025, the combined totals were: 151, 145, 150, 153, and 145 — none clearing 158.5.

With playoff intensity ramping up and both teams excelling defensively, the market line looks inflated. The pace will likely slow, and this shapes up to be another grind-it-out battle.

📌 Official Pick
Under 159.5 -126

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