Army at East Carolina Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football Week 5

📅 Date: Thursday, September 25, 2025
🕖 Time: 7:30 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium – Greenville, NC

The East Carolina Pirates open American Conference play against the Army Black Knights on Thursday night in Greenville. Both programs enter desperate to bounce back after losses in Week 4: Army fell 45-38 in overtime to North Texas, while ECU dropped a 34-13 home game to BYU.

Army Black Knights Outlook

Army (1-2, 0-1 American) is coming off back-to-back overtime defeats but remains a dangerous team. The defending conference champions are 5-0 on the road since last season and still boast one of the nation’s top rushing attacks at 300+ yards per game.

Quarterbacks Dewayne Coleman and Cale Hellums continue to split snaps, combining for 401 rushing yards and five touchdowns while adding just enough through the air to keep defenses honest. Running back Hayden Reed (211 rushing yards, 2 TDs) has been the most consistent weapon, fresh off a 113-yard outing against North Texas.

Turnovers have been the issue. Army committed six combined in its two overtime losses, wasting otherwise strong offensive production — including 14 straight possessions without a punt against North Texas.

Defensively, the Black Knights have slipped from 2024 form, giving up 32.0 points per game (116th nationally) and allowing 165 rushing yards per contest. Linebackers Andon Thomas (29 tackles) and Kalib Fortner (4 TFL) remain the anchors, but this unit is under pressure after allowing 30+ points in two of three games.

East Carolina Pirates Outlook

ECU (2-2, 0-0 American) has been inconsistent but flashes real upside. The Pirates pitched their first FBS shutout since 2000 in a 38-0 win over Coastal Carolina, yet were gashed by BYU’s run game last week.

Quarterback Katin Houser has been the bright spot, ranking fourth in the FBS with 1,258 passing yards while completing 68.4% of his throws. He’s cleared 285 yards in every game but also threw two costly picks against BYU. Houser has a deep receiver group led by Yannick Smith (146 yards vs. BYU), Brock Spalding, and Anthony Smith.

The running game is almost nonexistent, sitting 100th nationally at 102.5 yards per game. That imbalance could be problematic against Army’s clock-draining style.

Defensively, ECU thrives on aggression, ranking top 10 in tackles for loss (9.0 per game) and forcing eight turnovers through four games. But against BYU, they allowed 34 points and were beaten up front — something Army’s option offense is built to exploit.

Matchup & Betting Angle

• Army has covered in five straight road games dating back to 2024.

• ECU is 5-3 at home since last season, but both losses this year came at Dowdy-Ficklen.

• All three Army games in 2025 have been one-possession finishes (two in OT).

If Army avoids turnovers, its run game and time-of-possession dominance should frustrate ECU’s pass-heavy approach. The Pirates will move the ball through the air, but Army’s physicality and ball control can tilt this game late.

📌 Official Pick
Army +4.5 (-115)

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