Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL 25-26 Season Week 9 Monday Night Football

📅 Date: Monday, November 3, 2025
🕖 Time: 8:15 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

Arizona’s matchup profile screams opportunity for tight ends. They’ve surrendered an average of 68.7 receiving yards to the position this season and have allowed that 40-yard barrier six times already. That’s not an outlier — it’s a recurrent weakness you can attack with a dependable chain-mover who runs clean, contested routes.

Ferguson’s season tells a consistent story: he’s a volume-driven safety valve who racks up short-to-intermediate targets and converts them into yards after the catch. He’s already cleared this 39.5 mark in four of eight games, and last week’s zero-catch outing off one target was an obvious blip. A player with Ferguson’s role and route-running doesn’t stay ghosted for long — especially with Dak Prescott needing reliable check-down options.

Scheme and usage support the play. Dallas leans on Ferguson inside the numbers and in high-leverage situations; he leads or ranks near the top in short-yardage targets and third-down grabs. Arizona’s defense funnels more throws into the middle and seams than most, and those are exactly the vectors where Ferguson operates best — seam releases, drag routes, and short outs that turn into YAC chances.

Game script also helps the projection. The Cowboys like to move fast and generate early scoring chances, which creates more passing possessions and a steady stream of short-yardage opportunities for the tight end. If the Cardinals keep pace, Dak will rely on his quick reads and trusted middle targets; if the Cowboys push ahead, Ferguson becomes a target for clock-friendly completions and red-zone work.

Risk checks are modest. A heavy Cowboys run script, a game-ending blowout that limits targets, or an unexpected blanket from a healthy Arizona nickel could suppress his volume. Still, none of those feel like base-case outcomes given Arizona’s historical openness to opposing TEs and Ferguson’s role in Dallas’ offense.

This is a low-variance buy. The price isn’t huge, but the matchup, usage patterns, and recent volatility combine to make 39.5 yards a sensible target to back — I’ll take Jake Ferguson over 39.5 on Monday night.

📌 Official Picks
Jake Ferguson (Dallas Cowboys) Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

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