Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL 25-26 Season Week 9

📅 Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Paycor Stadium - Cincinnati, OH

Cincinnati’s secondary has been a soft spot all season, and the tape shows it’s not just one-off games — they’ve handed out yardage to quarterbacks with different styles. Recent weeks underline the trend: Justin Fields walked away with 244 yards, and both Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love cleared the mid-240s in other matchups. Those aren’t flukes; they’re consistent avenues for opposing passers.

Williams projects to see steady volume from the jump. Chicago will need to move the ball through the air to keep drives alive, and Williams has the receivers and route concepts to manufacture consistent intermediate completions. That baseline connection — a handful of 10–18 yard plays — is the kind of accumulation that gets him to this number without relying on one single splash play.

The matchup dynamics favor forcing throws rather than conservative game plans. If the Bears fall behind or encounter short fields, Chicago will lean on Williams to sustain possessions and convert third downs. That increases both attempts and opportunities for intermediate gains, which matters more for prop lines than sporadic chunk plays.

Cincinnati’s numbers against the pass back up the eye test: subpar yards-per-attempt and a permissive completion rate create more live-ball opportunities and longer drives for opponents. Those structural weaknesses neutralize game-to-game variability and raise the baseline expectation for any competent passer facing them — exactly the profile Williams fits this week.

Risk vectors are clear but manageable. A short, efficient drive-heavy day where Chicago leans on the run, or a single long defensive turnover that short-circuits his attempts, could drop him below the line. Still, given projected volume and the secondary’s tendencies, those outcomes feel less likely than a mid-250s passing day.

I’m backing Williams over 246.5 because the matchup and script both push him toward volume and intermediate gains. Expect a steady command of the intermediate field and a couple of chunk completions; that combo is enough to clear this number at -110.

📌 Official Pick
Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) Over 246.5 Passing Yards -110

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