UCF vs Kansas State Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football Week 5

📅 Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025
🕖 Time: 12:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium – Manhattan, Kansas

Kansas State enters Week 5 looking to turn the page after a rough 1-3 start. The Wildcats had extra time to regroup with a bye week, but they’ll need more than “energy” to stop a UCF team that has shown steady improvement since opening the season with a narrow win over Jacksonville State.

The Knights come into this matchup undefeated (3-0) and fresh off a dominant 34-9 win over North Carolina, where QB Tayven Jackson threw for 223 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 66 yards and a score. UCF’s ground attack piled up 143 rushing yards and three touchdowns, showcasing the balance that has made them so dangerous early in the season. Backup QB Cam Fancher also flashed in limited snaps, adding 39 rushing yards on just four carries.

Kansas State, meanwhile, has struggled to finish drives and find rhythm in its run game. The Wildcats’ offense has talent, but their inability to stop dual-threat quarterbacks is a major red flag here. Through four games, they’ve already surrendered 228 rushing yards and seven touchdowns to opposing QBs. That’s a problem against Jackson, who looks increasingly confident as a runner.

Defensively, UCF has been elite against the pass, ranking No. 1 in the Big 12 while allowing only 117 yards per game, forcing four interceptions, and collecting seven sacks. That secondary could frustrate a Kansas State passing game that has lacked consistency and big-play ability.

History favors the Wildcats at home, as they won the last Manhattan meeting 44-31 back in 2023. But with UCF playing in honor of late offensive line coach Shawn Clark, the Knights look highly motivated and sharper week by week. Kansas State’s close losses show they’re not far off, but until the Wildcats prove they can execute in crunch time, it’s tough to back them laying nearly a touchdown.

📌 Official Pick
UCF +6.5 -115

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