Vanderbilt vs Texas Prediction & Betting Pick | College Basketball January 14, 2026

📅 Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2026
🕖 Time: 9:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Moody Center - Austin, TX

Vanderbilt arrives unbeaten at 16-0 and with a national top‑10 tag, but numbers don’t win games on their own. The Commodores score in bunches — roughly 93 points per game on 50% shooting — and they defend well, holding opponents to about 72 points. That offensive ceiling is real; when Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles are hot, Kentucky‑style runs follow.

Texas is no slouch offensively either. The Longhorns average near 88 points and shoot close to 49% as a team. Their recent road win at Alabama showed they can grind out results in hostile environments. Dailyn Swain is the engine — he rebounds, creates, and finishes — and he gives Texas a reliable go‑to when the game tightens.

This matchup comes down to style and personnel. Vanderbilt thrives on clean looks and efficient ball movement. Texas, by contrast, forces contact and crashes the offensive glass relentlessly. If the Longhorns can turn the game into a physical, half‑court slog, they neutralize some of Vanderbilt’s offensive rhythm.

Foul trouble is the single biggest swing factor. Texas attempts more free throws relative to field goals than almost anyone, and Vanderbilt has had issues keeping key bigs on the floor at times. If Vanderbilt’s frontcourt picks up early fouls, the Commodores’ rebounding and interior defense become vulnerable.

Speaking of boards, Texas ranks among the nation’s best in offensive rebounding. That’s how they compensate for a below‑average 3‑point profile. Vanderbilt’s defensive rebounding has been strong overall, but the Alabama game exposed cracks. If Texas gets second‑chance opportunities, the scoreboard will stay tight and the spread will look generous.

Tempo matters. Vanderbilt prefers to play in transition and punish mistakes. Texas will try to slow things down, attack the rim, and make Vanderbilt earn every shot. Expect the Longhorns to use size and length to force longer two‑point attempts and disrupt Vanderbilt’s usual analytics‑driven efficiency.

Rotation depth is another edge for Texas. Vanderbilt’s supporting cast has been excellent, but depth can be tested on the road in a hostile arena. Fatigue and foul trouble combine to make late‑game minutes a real test for the Commodores’ bench pieces.

This is a classic road‑favorite trap. Public perception leans toward the unbeaten team, but covering five points in Austin is a different animal. I like Texas to keep this within a possession or two — they have the rebounding profile and physicality to do it.

Expect a grind, not a blowout. If Vanderbilt avoids foul trouble and plays at full throttle, they win. If Texas imposes contact and controls the glass, the Longhorns cover.

📌 Official Picks
Texas +5 -110 — back the home underdog to keep it close and exploit the matchup advantages on the glass and at the foul line.

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