Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Week 11 (November 16, 2025)

📅 Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Acrisure Stadium - Pittsburgh, PA

Jaylen Warren should eat this week. He’s been the Steelers’ primary runner, logging about 17 carries and 86 total yards per game fantasy-wise, and he turned 20 touches into 158 total yards the last time he faced Cincinnati. That usage profile alone makes 79.5 rushing yards a realistic target when the game script tilts his way.

Cincinnati’s run defense has been shredded all season — among the worst in opponent rush EPA and rush success rate — and they’ve allowed huge YAC and missed-tackle rates. In the first meeting Warren ripped them for 127 yards on just 16 carries (7.9 YPC). Those numbers aren’t a fluke; they’re a direct result of a Bengals unit that struggles to finish tackles and defend the box.

Warren’s physical profile explains why he profits in those spots. He forces missed tackles at an elite clip (top-15 among qualifying backs), racks up solid yards after contact, and doesn’t go down on first contact. He’s handled roughly 71% of Pittsburgh’s carries and is a reliable receiving option, which keeps him on the field in obvious workhorse situations.

Matchup and scheme line up perfectly. Cleveland’s defensive holes (specific personnel struggles in run defense and tackling) make it likely Pittsburgh leans Warren early and often. Kenneth Gainwell may mix in for third downs, but when you can consistently gain chunk yards on early downs, you don’t need third‑down specialists to cash this play.

Volume is the real lever here. Warren has hit this type of mark when his touch count climbs; expect 18–22 total touches in a game script where the Steelers ride the run to control the clock and exploit Cincinnati’s tackling issues. Given his snap share, role, and past results against this front, the probability of a 80+ yard rushing day is high.

I’m backing Jaylen Warren Over 79.5 rushing yards (-120). The matchup is as friendly as they come, his workload is established, and his contact metrics scream “explosive day” against a Bengals defense that simply can’t tackle consistently.

📌 Official Picks
Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers) Over 79.5 Rushing Yards -120

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