Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Week 11 (November 16, 2025)

📅 Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
🕖 Time: 9:30 AM EST
🏟️ Venue: Bernabéu Stadium - Madrid, Spain

De’Von Achane is coming off a massive showing — 22 rushes for 174 yards and two TDs, plus six catches for 51 more against Buffalo — and this matchup lines up perfectly for another heavy workload. Miami rode the run game last week and Achane answered with his best output of the season; getting him back to work in Madrid against a soft Washington front makes this an obvious play.

Washington’s run defense has been a problem all year, surrendering over 130 rushing yards per game and ranking in the bottom third of the league in yards per carry and EPA/Rush. They recently allowed Jahmyr Gibbs 172 yards and three scores, which tells you everything about their issues versus explosive, versatile backs. Achane checks every box — home-run speed, receiving chops, and now workload — to exploit that weakness.

Volume matters here. Achane’s snap share has been elite the last two weeks (north of 88–90%), and Miami has shown willingness to lean on him between the 20s and on early downs. He’s averaged about 78 rushing yards per game this year and has cleared the 17-carry threshold in games Miami wins; facing a defense that invites more handoffs, expect his touches to climb again in Spain.

Play style and scheme favor him, too. Miami’s blocking and play-action after successful runs create lanes for chunk gains, and Achane’s burst turns medium looks into long gains. Washington struggles with tackling in space and contains issues on the edges — exactly where Achane makes the biggest plays. If Miami commits to establishing the run early, Achane doesn’t just grind yards, he breaks them.

Risk is limited by matchup and recent usage. Achane has hit this line in only four of ten games, but the context matters: those games came with higher snap and carry totals. This week projects as workload-plus-opponent; the price reflects that, but the underlying numbers point to value on the over at 80.5 yards.

Backing De’Von Achane Over 80.5 rushing yards (-110). Expect Miami to feed him early, Washington to struggle to tackle and limit chunk plays, and Achane to finish the first half in position to clear this mark well before the bye week.

📌 Official Picks
De'Von Achane (Miami Dolphins) Over 80.5 Rushing Yards -110

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