Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Wild Card January 11, 2026

📅 Date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: EverBank Stadium - Jacksonville, FL

Jacksonville’s game plan is obvious: keep the ball away from Josh Allen. The Jaguars want long, possession‑eating drives that shorten the game and force Buffalo to win in fewer possessions. That script puts Travis Etienne front and center — he’s the engine that chews clock and flips field position.

Look at the Jaguars’ form. They’ve been the hottest team in football since early November, stringing together wins that weren’t squeakers. Post‑bye Jacksonville has been elite on both sides of the ball, and their offense has been particularly efficient. When a team is committed to controlling tempo, the lead back gets volume — and volume is exactly what these two tickets need to cash.

Etienne answered a rough 2024 with a bounce‑back 1,000‑yard season. He’s not just a speed threat; he’s a between‑the‑tackles grinder who benefits from improved line play. Jacksonville’s run‑ and pass‑blocking grades climbed significantly this year, which means Etienne is getting cleaner lanes and more second‑level opportunities than he did a season ago.

Buffalo can score in a hurry — Allen and James Cook are elite weapons — but the Bills’ run defense has been a vulnerability. They allowed a lot of rushing yards and touchdowns this season and were among the worst in yards per carry allowed. That’s the matchup you want when you’re backing a workhorse back on a team that plans to run the clock.

Game script matters here. If Jacksonville executes its plan and leans on Etienne early, he’ll rack up attempts in predictable down‑and‑distance spots: early second downs, short-yardage third downs, and late‑game clock‑killers. Hitting 16+ carries is a realistic outcome when the offense is committed to ball control and the line is opening holes.

Trevor Lawrence’s efficiency this season also helps Etienne. When the passing game moves the chains, defenses have to respect play action and linebackers get held up — that creates seams for Etienne to exploit. The Jaguars’ balance after the bye made their run game harder to scheme against, not easier.

Defensively, Buffalo can pressure and force turnovers, but their run‑stop issues are well documented. Even when they tightened up late in the year, the Bills still surrendered chunk runs and a high yards‑per‑carry figure. Against a back who gets volume and benefits from sustained drives, those weaknesses are exploitable.

From a betting angle these two plays are correlated and complementary. Over 15.5 attempts practically forces the 66.5+ yard line to cash — Etienne doesn’t need explosive runs to hit the number; steady 4–5 yard gains on 16–20 carries do the job. The +110 on the yardage ticket gives decent upside for a player who should see both volume and favorable matchups.

📌 Official Picks
Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars) Over 66.5 Rushing Yards -110
Travis Etienne (Jacksonville Jaguars) Over 15.5 Rushing Attempts -116
Expect Jacksonville to control the clock, lean on their improved offensive line, and let Etienne grind out the yards while keeping Allen off the field.

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