Louisville at Miami Florida Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football Week 8

📅 Date: Friday, October 17, 2025
🕖 Time: 7:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL

Isaac Brown started the season strong with a couple of 100-yard games, but things have cooled off fast. Over his last three matchups, he’s failed to find any real rhythm — just 24 yards vs Bowling Green, 23 vs Pitt, then a slight bounce back to 66 against Virginia. He’s clearly talented, but right now, he’s running into a brutal matchup against one of the toughest defensive fronts in college football.

Miami’s run defense has been a wall all year. They’re second in the ACC, giving up only 87 rushing yards per game and an incredible 2.8 yards per carry. To put that into perspective — only one player has managed to go over 55 yards against them this season, and that was Florida State’s QB Tommy Castellanos. This Hurricanes front is fast, physical, and relentless at closing running lanes. For a Louisville team that’s still searching for balance offensively, that’s a nightmare scenario.

What I really like about this spot is how game script favors the under. Miami is a two-touchdown favorite, and if things play out as expected, Louisville could be trailing for most of the second half. That means more passing and fewer carries for Brown. Even if he starts with some early volume, once the Hurricanes take control, it’s hard to see him getting enough touches to threaten this number.

To be fair, Brown’s a capable back, and Louisville will try to get him going early to ease pressure on Jack Plummer. But against a front that’s been consistently shutting down every back they’ve faced, efficiency will be hard to come by. I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami stacks the box early, daring Louisville to beat them through the air.

Unless Brown breaks off one long run, I just don’t see him sniffing 50 yards here. The matchup, the trend, and the likely flow of the game all point to the same outcome — Miami’s defense clamping down and forcing Louisville to throw. I’ve got Brown finishing somewhere in the 35–40 range.

📌 Official Pick

Isaac Brown (Louisville Cardinals) Under 51.5 Rushing Yards -116

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