Troy vs Jacksonville State Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football December 16, 2025

📅 Date: Tuesday, December 16, 2025
🕖 Time: 9:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery,Al

On paper this is a matchup that tilts toward the Gamecocks once you factor in Troy’s quarterback uncertainty and roster churn. With the likely absence of Goose Crowder, Troy’s offensive ceiling drops considerably.

Troy’s season had real highs — a run to the Sun Belt title game — but it came with a cost. Crowder was the team’s primary playmaker before a shoulder injury cost him seven weeks, and although Tucker Kilcrease kept the offense afloat in relief, he’s not the same dynamic threat. Crowder returned late only to suffer a lower‑body injury in the title game; reports have him on crutches heading into the bowl, which makes his availability doubtful.

That quarterback question isn’t the only concern. Kilcrease is a steady hand, but Troy’s identity shifted when Crowder missed time: fewer chunk plays, less vertical stress, and more predictable play-calling. Add the Tae Meadows transfer portal situation — his status for the bowl is unclear — and you could see Troy without two of its most important offensive pieces. In a single-game setting, that kind of attrition matters.

Jacksonville State’s rise since moving to FBS has been rapid and sustainable. They reached the C‑USA title game and have shown they can reload through coaching changes; Charles Kelly stepped in and kept the program competitive after Rich Rodriguez left. That continuity matters in bowl prep and gives JSU a steadier baseline than a Troy team scrambling to replace impact contributors.

The matchup advantage is obvious when you look at personnel. Cam Cook is the engine here — he led the nation in rushing this season, averaging north of 127 yards per game — and he’s the kind of back who can control tempo and shorten the game. If Cook gets his usual workload, Jacksonville State can chew clock, protect a lead, and force Troy to win in long, sustained drives rather than on explosive plays.

Game script will likely favor the Gamecocks. With Troy probably starting Kilcrease and potentially missing Meadows, their offense loses big-play upside and becomes easier to game-plan against. JSU can lean on the run, win the line of scrimmage, and make Troy one‑dimensional. That’s a recipe that benefits the underdog on the moneyline when the favorite is dealing with key absences.

I’ll take Jacksonville State ML (-116) — confident they win outright. The Gamecocks bring the cleaner game plan, the best player on the field in Cook, and fewer question marks than Troy. If JSU controls the trenches and executes a ball‑control script, this one should tilt decisively in their favor.

📌 Official Picks
Jacksonville State Money Line -116

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