Miami Dolphins at New York Jets Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Week 14 December 7, 2025

📅 Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: MetLife Stadium - East Rutherford, NJ

Miami heads into Week 14 riding a three-game win streak, but the way they’ve been winning tells the story. Over that stretch, they’ve thrown the ball on just 42.7% of their snaps — the lowest rate in the league during that span. Tua’s attempts in those games? 21, 20, and 23. That’s nowhere near the 30+ he’d need to clear this number, and the offensive identity looks locked in heading into MetLife.

This isn’t about Tua’s talent; it’s about how the Dolphins want to play. They’ve leaned heavily on the ground game and controlled tempo, keeping him in a caretaker role rather than asking him to carry volume. The 43-attempt spike earlier in the year was game-flow driven, not by design. When Miami dictates pace, they keep him in the mid-20s for throws, and that’s exactly the script they’ll try to replicate against the Jets.

From a production standpoint, Tua’s been stuck in the middle tier. He ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 15th in highly accurate throw rate, and sits outside the top 20 in catchable target and hero throw metrics. That profile doesn’t scream “high-volume passer,” especially against defenses that can muddy the intermediate windows.

The Jets aren’t elite, but they’re solid enough to keep Miami honest. Since Week 9, they’ve ranked 19th in yards per attempt allowed, 13th in adjusted completion rate, and tied for sixth-fewest passing touchdowns surrendered. That’s not a unit you shred with efficiency, and it’s certainly not one that forces Miami to abandon its run-heavy approach.

Last week against New Orleans was another reminder of the ceiling here. Tua went 12-for-23 for 157 yards and a pick. Miami still won 21–17, and the formula didn’t change: lean on the run, protect the ball, and keep the game manageable. That’s the version of this offense we’re betting on showing up again.

The risk is always game script. If the Jets somehow jump out early, Miami could be forced to let Tua throw 35+ times. But that’s not the expectation. The Dolphins’ defense is strong enough to prevent a runaway, and their offense is built to grind possessions rather than chase shootouts.

📌 Official Pick
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) Under 29.5 Pass Attempts -108 Miami’s identity is clear, and unless the Jets flip the script early, Tua’s volume stays capped.

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