BYU vs Texas Tech Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football Big 12 Championship December 6, 2025

📅 Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
🕖 Time: 11:00 AM EST
🏟️ Venue: AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

BYU and Texas Tech meet in Arlington with contrasting paths but similar identities: both can score, both can hit explosives, and both have defenses that create game-changing plays. BYU leans on Bear Bachmeier’s poise and LJ Martin’s patient, downhill style; Texas Tech counters with Behren Morton’s clean decision-making and Cameron Dickey’s nose for the end zone. It’s a championship game, which usually tilts toward execution, field position, and the team that handles pressure best.

BYU’s offense is steady when Bachmeier stays on schedule. He’s at 2,304 yards with a 13:4 TD:INT, and Martin’s 1,134 and eight scores give them a dependable early-down engine. Chase Roberts is the chain-mover at 713 yards, and they’ve shown they can stack points: 41, 26, and 44 in their last three wins. The swing factor is protection. If BYU keeps the pocket clean, they can live in that intermediate zone and avoid third-and-long stress.

Defensively, the Cougars have playmakers at every level. Faletau Satuala flies to the ball (68 tackles), Jack Kelly has closed drives with 7 sacks, and Tanner Wall’s 4 picks are a reminder they’ll bait throws and punish mistakes. Twenty-six sacks and 15 INTs overall tell you they’re opportunistic rather than suffocating — bend some, take the ball away, win the hidden possessions battle.

Texas Tech brings more top-end balance. Morton’s 2,118 yards, 17 TDs, and only four picks fit the “don’t give the game away” mandate in a title setting. Dickey has been a hammer near the goal line (13 TDs), and Caleb Douglas at 696 and five scores gives them the vertical layer. They’ve scored 42+ in four of their last five, but you can feel the pivot when the stakes rise: they’re capable of throttling down the pace and playing situational ball.

The Red Raiders’ defense is where the gap opens. Jacob Rodriguez is the heartbeat — 97 tackles and four INTs — and David Bailey’s 12.5 sacks headline a front that wins with first-step juice and finishing power. As a unit, 33 sacks and 12 picks isn’t just volume; it’s drive-killing consistency. That’s the profile that compresses passing lanes, forces checkdowns, and turns red-zone trips into field goals instead of six.

Game script leans measured. BYU wants Martin involved and a manageable attempt count for Bachmeier; Tech’s front can dictate tempo and keep everything in front. In a neutral-field championship with both defenses creating pressure and turnovers, you often trade splash for control. That points away from a track meet and toward a possession game decided by third downs, special teams, and who blinks first.

I’m siding with Texas Tech’s balance and pass rush to tilt the final quarter — and the total stays under if both teams lean into ball control and play-action instead of a 60-minute shootout. BYU will land punches, but Tech’s ability to win early downs and finish at the quarterback is the separator.

📌 Official Picks
Texas Tech Win & Under 50.5 +120: correlated angle with Tech’s front suppressing explosives and both offenses living in a controlled script.

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