Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys Prediction & Betting Pick | NFL Week 16 December 21, 2025

📅 Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
🕖 Time: 1:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: AT&T Stadium - Arlington, TX

CeeDee Lamb is back and rolling. After clearing concussion protocol, he’s posted three straight games with 110+ yards, and he’s caught at least six passes in each of those outings. That kind of steady volume is the foundation for this play — when a receiver is getting that many looks, the yardage line becomes a function of opportunity more than variance.

The matchup isn’t ideal on paper — the Chargers have been one of the stingiest units against wideouts all season, limiting fantasy production at the position. Still, Dallas will need to throw to keep pace after a tough loss to Minnesota, and that game script should push targets Lamb’s way. When the offense needs plays, Dak Prescott looks for his most reliable option.

Lamb’s recent streak puts him in elite company; only a handful of receivers have as many 100+ yard games this year. Missing time earlier in the season hasn’t changed his role — if anything, he’s become more central to the Cowboys’ attack. George Pickens has cooled off, which further consolidates volume in Lamb’s direction. Volume equals floor, and Lamb’s floor is high right now.

There’s also the efficiency angle. Lamb isn’t just catching short passes; he’s turning intermediate looks into chunk gains. Those plays add up quickly and make the 75.5 threshold feel conservative given his target share and route depth over the last month. Expect a mix of quick outs, crossers, and a few shots downfield that push the total.

Game context matters. Dallas needs to respond and keep playoff positioning intact, so they won’t be content to grind out a low-scoring slog. The Chargers can force throws with their pass rush, but that often means shorter, high-percentage targets — exactly the kind Lamb has been converting into yards. He’s the safety valve and the go-to in pressure moments.

Risk exists — a surprise defensive scheme, an early injury, or a game that tilts run-heavy — but the usage trends mitigate those concerns. At -112 and with the recent target counts, the edge is on the over. I’m sizing this one up at 3 units because the combination of volume, form, and matchup context lines up in Lamb’s favor.

📌 Official Picks
CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys) Over 75.5 Receiving Yards -112

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