Tulane vs Mississippi Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football Playoff Round 1 December 20, 2025

📅 Date: Saturday, December 20, 2025
🕖 Time: 3:30 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - Oxford, MS

The Rebels are a top‑10 team (No. 6), unbeaten at home (8‑0) and averaging 498 yards and 37.3 points per game. That kind of firepower against a mid‑level opponent is exactly the scenario where a big halftime line gets eaten quickly.

Tulane is a legit Group of Five champion — 11‑2, riding a five‑game win streak and averaging 410 yards and 29.1 points — but they’re not built to outmuscle elite offenses. Jake Retzlaff is a dual threat (14 passing TDs, 16 rushing TDs) and Jamauri McClure can grind on the ground, yet Tulane still allows 22.6 points per game. On the road at Vaught‑Hemingway, that defensive profile is a liability early.

The season’s earlier meeting was a blowout: Ole Miss handled Tulane 45‑10, outgaining them 548‑282. Retzlaff managed just 56 passing yards that day and the Rebels controlled tempo from the jump. That result wasn’t a fluke — it exposed a clear gap in playmaker quality and schematic mismatch that still exists on paper.

Coaching changes at Ole Miss (Lane Kiffin’s exit, Pete Golding promoted) are worth watching, but they haven’t dented the on‑field product. The Rebels still move the ball at an elite clip and Chambliss has been sharp — 359 yards and 4 TDs in the last game — so the offense’s first‑half punch remains intact. Home crowd, continuity on offense, and depth all favor an early Ole Miss surge.

Tulane has improved since September and beat quality Power Four opponents, but they’re more balanced than dominant. They don’t have a single elite unit to lean on if the game turns into a track meet, and that makes them vulnerable to an opponent who can score quickly and often. In a one‑off playoff setting, that matters more than it does over a full season.

Game script is the final piece: Ole Miss wants to set the tone, force Tulane into catch‑up mode, and protect the ball. If the Rebels hit their early rhythm — quick passes, explosive plays, and a physical run game — a two‑score halftime lead is well within reach. Tulane can rally late, but the first 30 minutes look tilted.

📌 Official Pick
Mississippi -9.5 First Half -120 — confident they establish control early and make this feel settled by halftime. The matchup, the prior result, and the home‑field dynamics all point to a fast start from the Rebels.

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