Northern Illinois at Massachusetts Prediction & Betting Pick | College Football November 12, 2025

📅 Date: Wednesday, November 12, 2025
🕖 Time: 7:00 PM EST
🏟️ Venue: Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - Amherst, MA

Two offensively challenged teams meet and none of the usual drivers for a shootout are present. UMass averages 11.3 points per game and has struggled to sustain drives all season; Northern Illinois isn’t much better at 12.2 PPG. When both clubs live under 15 points most weeks, a sub‑44 total becomes realistic — not because defenses are suddenly elite, but because neither offense can consistently move the chains.

UMass has been especially brutal moving the ball. Since that 27‑26 game with Bryant they’ve been stuck in low gear: one 20‑point outing in eight tries and multiple games with single‑digit scoring. Their rushing attack returns just 2.8 yards per carry as a team and protection issues sap any rhythm AJ Hairston might find. Field goals from Derek Morris are a bright spot, but when drives stall they mostly end without points.

Northern Illinois offers a similar profile from the other side. Josh Holst and the passing game haven’t generated chunk plays, while the Huskies lean on Telly Johnson Jr. to grind out yards. Their run game can control short drives and chew clock, but that typically produces low play‑count possessions rather than quick scores. Last week’s 21‑7 win over Ball State is the exception, not the trend.

Turnovers, sacks and penalties have been common denominators for both squads — all things that reduce total possessions. UMass has allowed 30+ in five straight, yet those games often feature long opponent drives rather than a flurry of back‑and‑forth scoring; Northern Illinois’ last few losses have been held down by similar mechanics. When possessions shrink and drives end on punts or turnovers, totals compress fast.

Coaching and game script point to conservative play-calling. Neither team has reliable explosive play ability, so both coaches will prioritize field position and clock management over high‑risk shot‑making. Expect long, slogging possessions, punts, and a handful of stalled red‑zone trips rather than a barrage of tacked‑on points late.

I’m taking the Under 43.5 at -110. The floor for both offenses is low, possession counts will be limited, and messy fundamentals favor fewer points.

📌 Official Picks
Northern Illinois vs Massachusetts Under 43.5 -110

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